FX Markets Update We expect the euro to reverse course before long We think that the tailwinds supporting the rebound in the euro against the US dollar have largely run their course, and still forecast the EUR/USD rate to return to parity as advanced economies fall... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How US & E-Z bonds might fare as rate hikes conclude We forecast small further falls in the yields of long-dated US Treasuries and euro-zone sovereign bonds between now and the end of next year, as disinflation picks up steam and central banks turn more... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Relative resilience of US stock market is on shaky ground The underperformance of the US stock market seen last year has generally paused so far in 2023, as returns have been propped up by mega-cap “growth” stocks. That may continue over the rest of the year... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Will the BoE take rates above 4.5%? 1683813600 The market has finally come round to our long-standing view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5%, with the Bank of England to likely to deliver another 25 basis point hike when it meets on 11th&
Capital Daily Some lessons from the RBA and RBNZ for global yield curves We don’t think central bank hawkishness in major developed markets would necessarily push long-term yields up by much. 2nd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack 2023’s rally in US equities is looking a little thin The MSCI USA Index has not made much further headway on net in April so far. But it has at least held on to its strong gains from earlier in 2023, returning about 8% YTD. Part of that strength... 28th April 2023 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily YCC set to survive for a while yet: what next for JGBs and the yen With Yield Curve Control set to stay in place at least for the rest of this year, we now expect the yield of 10-year JGBs to settle close to the 50bp tolerance band ceiling. But given we predict... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update More than pensions to the UK’s stock listings drought In our view, the role of UK pension funds in deterring firms from listing on the London Stock Exchange has been overstated of late. To the extent that higher valuations are the reason firms find a US... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI will continue providing support to rupee The rupee has held up well so far this year and, while we think renewed weakening is likely over the coming months as the US dollar rebounds, the recent improvement in the external position, ample FX... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Power cuts ripping through South Africa’s economy Persistent and deepening electricity outages in South Africa are wreaking economic havoc. Almost half of generating capacity was offline this month, triggering severe “loadshedding”. Output in energy... 27th April 2023 · 12 mins read
China Chart Pack Financial flows, not trade, leading CNH expansion The renminbi surpassed the US dollar to become the most-commonly-used currency in China’s cross-border transactions for the first time last month. Part of the increase – the part that has received... 27th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Some tweaks to our views on equities and currencies Resilience in much of the global economic data of late has raised questions over whether the recessions we expect in most developed markets (DMs) will materialise later than we had initially thought... 27th April 2023 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect “risky” assets to fall later this year We think disappointing global growth will be a headwind for “risky” assets in developed markets during the second half of this year. 27th April 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We think a rebound in the US dollar is still on the cards The US dollar has weakened again over the past month or so, leaving it only somewhat higher in trade-weighted terms since the start of its rally at the start of 2022. In other words, the greenback has... 26th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Monetary policy stance slowly shifting The raft of inflation data over the past couple of weeks will have provided some relief for Latin American central banks, with headline rates in most countries now on a clear downward trajectory. In... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Tight credit conditions still pose a threat to risky assets Deposit outflows at First Republic Bank don’t tell us much more than we already knew about the state of the broader US banking sector. But it highlights the evidence of an ongoing credit crunch, and... 26th April 2023 · 6 mins read
