FX Markets Update CEE currencies face external and domestic headwinds We think that currencies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will depreciate further against the euro over the rest of this year. Within the region, we anticipate that the koruna will continue to... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the drop in Gilt yields and sterling will persist We doubt that the recent fall in the yield of 10-year Gilts will continue. Indeed, we expect it to rebound to a significantly higher level than its recent peak over the next year or so. We also think... 12th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q2) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th May 2022 · 1 min read
FX Markets Focus We expect the dollar to stay strong as the Fed tightens The trade-weighted US dollar has edged up to multi-decade highs as the Fed has started to raise its policy rate. In this Focus, we analyse past Fed tightening cycles and explain why we think the... 12th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Three positive stories from frontier markets There has been plenty of doom and gloom surrounding the outlook for frontier economies over recent months, particularly Sri Lanka and Tunisia. But there are some places where we hold more upbeat views... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily No sign yet that peak inflation is a watershed moment for markets So far, at least, tentative evidence of a peak in inflation in today’s US consumer price index report has not been a watershed moment for US government bonds or equities. Both Treasuries and the S&P... 11th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily The US dollar, risk sentiment, and high-beta currencies Even if the current rout in the US stock market worsened and caused the Fed to reassess how much additional monetary tightening is necessary, we suspect the US dollar would stay strong amid heightened... 10th May 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weaker economy yet to dent price expectations The weaker economic outlook triggered by the surge in CPI inflation to a 30-year high of 7.0% in March has yet to put a dent in businesses own expectations for their selling prices. The Bank of... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation after inflation has peaked Although we suspect that inflation in the US has now peaked, we don’t think that this will prevent either long-dated Treasury yields from rising again or the stock market there from coming under... 10th May 2022 · 24 mins read
Capital Daily Growth might underperform value for a while yet While US equities have fallen across the board today, “growth” stocks have continued to fare even worse than their “value” peers. We think that this underperformance has further to run, given that the... 9th May 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI intervention will support the rupee The Indian rupee hit a record low against the US dollar today, but the big picture is that RBI intervention has helped it hold up better than most EM currencies recently. Given that the RBI has ample... 9th May 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The USD (and FOMC) is unlikely to change course The US dollar looks set to eke out small gains against most currencies this week as US bond yields rose further and equities whipsawed. While the net effect of the FOMC’s policy announcement and today... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Three market trends as payrolls clear the Fed to press ahead We expect three of the major trends in markets this week – higher long-dated US Treasury yields, a stronger US dollar, and faltering equity markets – to continue for a while yet. 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect corporate bond spreads to rise a bit more We expect concerns about global economic growth and monetary policy tightening to push up the spreads of developed market corporate bonds a bit further over the coming year. Markets Drop-In (11 th May... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics EUR/USD: The case for parity We think the euro will eventually weaken further, falling to parity against the US dollar, as the euro-zone economy falters, the terms of trade shock from higher energy prices feeds through, and the... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
