Capital Daily RBNZ: A kiwi in a coalmine? While today’s 50bp policy rate hikes from the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada point to the aggressiveness of the global monetary tightening cycle now underway, the market reaction to their announcements... 13th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even as inflation eases While we think US inflation peaked in March, we still expect long-term Treasury yields to grind higher over the rest of 2022. 12th April 2022 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Relative equity valuations amid a bond market tantrum We suspect the sectors of the equity market where valuations are the lowest will continue to weather the storm of rising bond yields a bit better than others. Drop-In (13 th April, 16:00 SGT/09:00 BST... 12th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Revisiting the case for Japanese equities The valuations of mid- and large-cap equities in Japan have become even more attractive compared to those of their US counterparts following a further period of substantial underperformance in common... 12th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Boost to US equities from earnings expectations may soon fade Even if the US earnings season – which gets underway this week – reveals decent growth in profits, we doubt that expectations for earnings will continue to be revised higher. This informs our forecast... 11th April 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Le Pen & sanction risk put euro under more pressure The US dollar has risen across the board this week as the Fed’s hawkish message on “quantitative tightening”, renewed sanction risks in Europe, and the polling shift in favour of far-right candidate... 8th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect the rally in the Brazilian real is nearing its end This week the Brazilian real has reversed some of its rally against the US dollar, and we think there is scope for it to weaken a bit further this year. 8th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Optimistic earnings expectations may slow E-Z equities Earnings expectations for listed euro-zone companies look, as a whole, a bit optimistic to us given the economic impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and Western This feeds into our view that the region’s... 8th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the divergence of gold and real yields While the gold price has been surprisingly strong lately despite surging real yields, we still think it will fall back eventually. 7th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to tighten more sharply than most anticipate We expect Australia’s GDP to surpass its pre-virus trend as soon as this quarter and to keep expanding at a robust pace thereafter. While wage growth will accelerate only gradually, we expect... 7th April 2022 · 24 mins read
Capital Daily What quantitative tightening could mean for Treasuries We think quantitative tightening by the Fed will contribute to Treasury yields rising a bit further. 6th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US yield curve and equities dancing to different tunes The resilience of the US stock market over the past month or so is hard to square with recent inversions in parts of the US Treasury yield curve. While we do not think that these inversions... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia heading toward default Political developments and spillovers from the war in Ukraine have compounded concerns over Tunisia’s public finances and cemented our view that the government will default sooner rather than later... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the return of “Le Pen risk” in Europe The recent polling shift in favour of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen ahead of France’s presidential election is starting to affect financial markets. If the experience of the last election in 2017... 5th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update The global tightening cycle and bond yields This tightening cycle looks set to be much more synchronised across developed market economies than the last one, which we think creates more scope for rises in bond yields across countries but could... 5th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Real yields and the relative performance of growth and value Although the 10-year TIPS yield may appear to have lost its influence on the relative performance of the growth and value factors in the US stock market since mid-February, we suspect this is just a... 4th April 2022 · 5 mins read
