Capital Daily Some more thoughts on the Treasury yield curve Our expectation that the US yield curve will “bear steepen” might seem strange given its behaviour ahead of recent major Fed tightening cycles. After all, in three of the last four, the spread between... 9th August 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Dollar resumes its rally on the back of strong US data The US dollar is ending the week higher against most currencies, extending its gains alongside rising US Treasury yields following the stronger-than-expected July payrolls data. With Fed officials... 6th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Strong employment report points to a steeper US yield curve We think that today’s non-farm payrolls release, and recent news on the bipartisan US infrastructure bill, add some weight to our view that the past week’s climb in US Treasury yields and steepening... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of US earnings season so far While the earnings of firms in the S&P 500 have generally surprised to the upside in the second quarter of this year (Q2), we think the scope for further positive earnings surprises from here is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Post-MPC rise in Gilt yields may be a sign of things to come The 10-year Gilt yield rose slightly after the Bank of England left its policy settings unchanged today and we expect it to continue to push higher over the coming years. 5th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities We doubt valuations will support China’s stock market While measures of the valuation of China’s stock market have fallen recently, we don’t expect them to rebound soon. This helps to underpin our fairly downbeat forecasts for the country’s stock indices... 5th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation The asset allocation implications of China’s slowdown The further slowdown we expect in China would probably be a headwind for some “risky” assets that are particularly sensitive to its economic cycle. It also informs our view that China’s sovereign... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are investors concerned about peak big-tech earnings? The share prices of most of the US big-tech firms have faltered – and underperformed the broader market – since they reported another quarter of consensus-beating earnings results last week. This has... 4th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update What would it take to generate a much stronger US dollar? We think that the upside risks to our US dollar view have increased. On a trade-weighted basis, we forecast a ~4% rise from its current level by the end of 2022; this Update considers what factors... 4th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Global headwinds likely to weigh further on the Aussie dollar We think that RBA’s relatively hawkish stance will not be enough to prevent further falls in the Aussie dollar. 3rd August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect China’s bond market to diverge from those elsewhere We think China’s long-term government bond yields will continue to fall as the country’s economy slows further, even if yields rebound elsewhere. 2nd August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally pauses as Fed & US data disappoint Following a strong run over the past month, the US dollar has weakened across the board this week after some softer-than-expected US data and a non-committal FOMC. Next week’s key data releases... 30th July 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily We expect stock market gains to underwhelm from here Although we don’t think the latest ructions in stock markets suggest a more significant rout is on the way, we suspect that stocks’ recovery from their pandemic-era lows has largely run its course... 30th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Jul. 2021) While emerging market equities have generally struggled since the previous edition of our Long Run Returns Monitor was published, most other asset classes have fared reasonably well. Most notably... 30th July 2021 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria "Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities We don’t expect the rally in bond markets to continue While long-dated government bond yields have plummeted in recent months, we suspect that high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy will see them turn a corner before long. We forecast... 30th July 2021 · 29 mins read
