US Commercial Property Update

Immigration will support largest multifamily markets

While the headline-hitting surge in immigration last year was mainly driven by a spike in unauthorized movement, legal immigration has picked up from its pandemic lows, which is good news for many...

3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2024)

The muted 0.2% rise in the national Case-Shiller house price index in June was no shock considering that buyer demand collapsed that month, while supply kept growing. With the spring selling season...

27th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2024)

The small rebound in existing home sales in July seems underwhelming after last month’s large drop in mortgage rates, but the data are based on completed transactions and so it will take at least...

22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our UK Housing Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent drop in mortgage rates has caused house prices to rise a bit faster than expected...

15th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 24)

While investment has tentatively turned a corner, subdued activity and further rises in cap rates mean 2024 will still be a tough year. All-property values are down by 18% from their mid-2022 peaks...

14th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Drop in mortgage rates won’t set the market alight

We are sceptical that the recent decline in mortgage rates will revive the housing market. Rates are still high compared to recent years, discouraging homeowners from moving, while most potential new...

12th August 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Jul. 2024)

July was a disappointing month for mortgage activity overall, with earlier high borrowing costs causing home purchase applications to slide by 5.4% m/m. All the attention, however, will be on the last...

7th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease. However, the recent sharp decline in mortgage rates will offset some of that softness...

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Elevated insurance premiums continue to hit valuations

The rise in severe weather events over the last five years has left property insurers scrambling to price-in physical risks, causing premium growth to reach a 20-year high. While we think the worst is...

31st July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Strong supply weighing on house prices in the Sun Belt

Significant homebuilding in the Sun Belt region over the past three years has restored housing inventory to pre-pandemic levels, which is why house prices there have stalled. In contrast, markets in...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May 2024)

Another moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in May adds to the evidence that sellers are losing their grip on the market due to increasing supply. Do not write our forecast for a 5% gain in house...

30th July 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Jun. 2024)

The sharp rise in mortgage rates in April was the catalyst for existing home sales falling to a 13-year low in June. However, borrowing costs have since receded and timelier indicators of activity...

23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jun. 2024)

The rise in housing starts and building permits in June is not as good as it seems at first glance, as it was driven by gains in the volatile multi-family sector, which we think will prove temporary...

17th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Flight to more affordable South set to continue

Many households have left western metros in favor of those in the South over the past two years. With remote working looking like a permanent fixture of office-based jobs and affordability...

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that...

16th July 2024 · 15 mins read