UK Housing Market Update Residential property derivatives – should we listen? The recent improvement in economic sentiment has been reflected in a shift in residential property derivative pricing. However, while we agree that house price declines in 2009 and 2010 will be... 17th June 2009 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Housing correction nearing the end, but it’s not over yet 15th June 2009 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Housing correction nearing the end, but it’s not over yet The housing market appears to have turned a corner. Activity has levelled off and housing may now be significantly undervalued. Nonetheless, the large inventory overhang means that prices could still... 15th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Which type of property will experience the largest falls? The received wisdom is that, during the current correction, supply shortages will ensure that the price of detached family homes hold up far better than the price of flats, particularly in the... 11th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Revised economic growth outlook will not underpin house prices Yesterday, we revised up our forecasts for economic growth in the UK. Our new forecasts still leave the economy on a very weak path, which will not prevent further falls in employment and household... 9th June 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Revised economic growth outlook will not underpin house prices Yesterday, we revised up our forecasts for economic growth in the UK. Our new forecasts still leave the economy on a very weak path, which will not prevent further falls in employment and household... 9th June 2009 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Housing undervalued, but prices will keep falling anyway 31st May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How significant is the rise in new buyer interest? The improvement in buyer interest in recent months has raised hopes of an imminent recovery. However, we think this is overly optimistic. When looked at in perspective, the recent upturn has been very... 27th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Buy-to-let arrears look set to stay higher than in the wider market Figures released by the CML last week showed that mortgage arrears in the buy-to-let (BTL) market are running ahead of those in the wider market. This is a relatively new development but, over the... 22nd May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Can mortgage interest rates fall any further? Official interest rates have reached their floor, but while recent press speculation has focused on the idea that mortgage interest rates are more likely to rise than fall from here, we think there is... 14th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What will mortgage affordability look like in five years’ time? Measures of mortgage affordability are suggesting that houses are already good value. But these measures are reflecting the abnormally low current level of interest rates. When interest rates return... 7th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What should we make of the conflicting rent data? A number of alternative sources of private sector rent data have recently emerged. However, their conflicting signals mean that the available picture of what is actually happening to rents remains... 21st April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Negative equity to affect at least 3 million households Last October we estimated that the current housing market correction would leave some 2.5 million households with at least some degree of negative equity. CML estimates, published yesterday, that... 17th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Affordability has improved, but the correction is far from over This morning’s Daily Telegraph reported that, according to Lombard Street Research, housing affordability is now better than its long-term average. That much is uncontroversial. However, we disagree... 14th April 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Is the rise in buyer interest enough to trigger a recovery? Given the severity of the decline in buyer interest over the past year or two, the recent reported increase is just a drop in the ocean. Buyer interest will need to rise significantly further before... 2nd April 2009 · 1 min read
