UK Economics Update Bigger house price falls point to 50/50 chance of UK recession We now think that house prices will fall by about a third over the next 2 to 3 years, clearly increasing the chances of a recession in the UK economy to perhaps 50%. And with house prices still likely... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bigger house price falls point to 50/50 chance of UK recession We now think that house prices will fall by about a third over the next 2 to 3 years, clearly increasing the chances of a recession in the UK economy to perhaps 50%. And with house prices still likely... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus House prices to fall by 35% In recent months, the housing market correction has gathered momentum. The economy is also poised for three years of sub-trend growth and unemployment looks set to reach a 12-year high. We believe... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish consumers starting to flag The further fall in Swedish house prices in May adds weight to our view that household spending growth will slow sharply this year. This should ultimately prompt the Riksbank to cut rates in 2009. But... 16th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How far will new housing supply fall? We believe that new dwelling completions in England could fall from 175,000 last year to 135,000 by end-2009, a 25% drop. Past housing market corrections have triggered falls of at least 15% in new... 11th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update House price falls will dent consumer spending Yesterday’s news that house prices have now fallen by 7% on the Nationwide house price index has brought to the fore the disagreements about the impact of house price falls on consumer spending. We... 30th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update House price falls will dent consumer spending Yesterday’s news that house prices have now fallen by 7% on the Nationwide house price index has brought to the fore the disagreements about the impact of house price falls on consumer spending. We... 30th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How vulnerable are Spanish banks to a property crash? The Spanish banking system looks in relatively good health compared to those of some other eurozone economies. Nonetheless, a major adjustment in the domestic property sector could still cause banks... 27th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The demand for second homes is set to plummet Over the past decade, the capital gains on residential property on offer have been an additional attraction to owning a second home. But now that the housing market correction is underway, second... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How much further will US house prices fall? Houses are still substantially over-valued even though prices have already fallen by around 10% on the Case-Shiller national index . An additional decline of between 10% and 15% this year would put... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for residential rents Poor levels of affordability, tight lending criteria, and further expected capital losses on houses, imply both strong growth in the demand for rental accommodation and limited growth in supply... 8th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update House price indices send a consistent message House price indices differ in their coverage. The Nationwide and Halifax include only sales on which they approve the mortgage, roughly 8% and 20% respectively of the 75% of sales which are... 2nd May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The re-emergence of hidden housing supply is set to worsen the housing market downturn Many owner-occupiers are engaged in a form of speculation, in that whether, when, and how much space they buy is heavily influenced by their beliefs about the future course of house prices. As it... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Housing equity withdrawal to grind to a halt As the credit crunch bites and house prices fall, we expect housing (also known as mortgage) equity withdrawal (HEW) to dry up almost completely over the next couple of years. Although only a fraction... 22nd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Housing equity withdrawal to grind to a halt As the credit crunch bites and house prices fall, we expect housing (also known as mortgage) equity withdrawal (HEW) to dry up almost completely over the next couple of years. Although only a fraction... 22nd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK house price forecast revisions Developments over the past quarter have highlighted the downside risks to our house price forecasts. Accordingly, we have cut them. We now think that house prices will fall by 8% this year, rather... 21st April 2008 · 1 min read
