UK Housing Market Focus What is the fair value level for house prices? To our minds, the weight of evidence suggests that the fair value level for house prices is currently in the region of £125,000. For context, that figure is some 17% below the Nationwide’s estimate of... 16th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update House price falls to exceed 35% The Nationwide and Halifax indices show that house prices are now almost 20% below their peak, meaning that there is still some way to go before our forecast of a 35% peak-to-trough fall is delivered... 6th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update House price falls to exceed 35% The Nationwide and Halifax indices show that house prices are now almost 20% below their peak, meaning that there is still some way to go before our forecast of a 35% peak-to-trough fall is delivered... 6th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update House price falls to exceed 35% The Nationwide and Halifax indices show that house prices are now almost 20% below their peak, meaning that there is still some way to go before our forecast of a 35% peak-to-trough fall is delivered... 6th February 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Mortgage arrears and possessions to rise to a record high Thanks to sharply rising unemployment, we expect mortgage arrears to surpass the early 1990s highs. While Government pressure on lenders to be more lenient with struggling households and the... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling house prices add to the gloom in Spain The latest news from Spain shows that the housing market downturn is gaining momentum as the economy enters recession. Further sharp falls over the coming quarters are inevitable and we expect house... 15th January 2009 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What is the outlook for new-build prices? In contrast to the average homeowner, house-builders’ operational survival directly depends on their ability to sell their properties. Accordingly, house-builders will be more willing to drop property... 22nd December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Rise in new buyer enquiries needs to be treated with caution At first glance, yesterday brought some rare positive news from the beleaguered housing market. According to the CML, first-time buyers’ share of mortgage lending rose to a three-and-a-half year high... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage payment deferral unlikely to constrain house price falls New measures aimed at limiting the number of people losing their homes are unlikely to bring the housing market correction to an end, let alone bring about a revival. But, they could help to slow the... 4th December 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update What do new trackers tells us about the mortgage rate outlook? Although most of the biggest lenders have passed on last week’s 1.5% base rate cut to their standard variable mortgage rates many smaller lenders have not. And the early signs are that the interest... 14th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How important is the City for London’s housing market? We suspect that the importance of the City jobs market to London’s housing market has been overplayed. But against the current backdrop in which the wider economy is on course for a twoyear... 10th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mortgage interest rates heading to 3% Today’s interest rate cut, from 4.5% to 3%, marks only the early stages of a phase of aggressive monetary easing which will ultimately take base rates to an all-time low of 1%. Mortgage interest rates... 6th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Mortgage interest rates heading to 3% Today’s interest rate cut, from 4.5% to 3%, marks only the early stages of a phase of aggressive monetary easing which will ultimately take base rates to an all-time low of 1%. Mortgage interest rates... 6th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage interest rates heading to 3% Today’s interest rate cut, from 4.5% to 3%, marks only the early stages of a phase of aggressive monetary easing which will ultimately take base rates to an all-time low of 1%. Mortgage interest rates... 6th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How much will payment protection insurance cost insurers? Despite the write-downs already made, the financial sector has yet to face billions of pounds of further losses associated with the downturn in the economy. Our forecast that unemployment will... 4th November 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update One-in-five mortgage borrowers to be affected by negative equity According to Bank of England estimates, negative equity now affects roughly 3% of mortgage borrowers, or just over 350,000 households. Yet, if we are right and house prices still have at least another... 29th October 2008 · 1 min read
