UK Economics Focus Have fixed rate mortgages changed the housing market? The popularity of fixed rate mortgages in recent years appears to have dampened the sensitivity of the housing market to rising interest rates. That is not to say that higher interest rates will not... 17th May 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK sub-prime mortgage lending: living on borrowed time? Unfolding developments in the US sub-prime mortgage market make uncomfortable reading. But do developments in the US have any implications for the UK mortgage market, which has also seen strong growth... 28th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK sub-prime mortgage lending: living on borrowed time? Unfolding developments in the US sub-prime mortgage market make uncomfortable reading. But do developments in the US have any implications for the UK mortgage market, which has also seen strong growth... 28th March 2007 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What does the sub-prime crisis mean for the wider economy? The meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage sector will have a significant impact on the US economy because of its consequences for the housing market, even if there are no contagion effects on the rest of... 15th March 2007 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Housing, inflation and the US economy: an update of our views For close to a year now we have been predicting that a sharp housing-led slowdown in US economic growth would take hold in 2007. However, two recent developments have convinced us that the slowdown... 19th September 2006 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Where will the housing slowdown hit hardest? The end of the housing boom, which is apparently now underway, is arguably the biggest risk to the US economic outlook over the next couple of years . In previous Focus pieces we have argued that even... 27th February 2006 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC may be too sanguine on link between housing & spending The Monetary Policy Committee has soothed concerns over the recent slowdown in the housing market by pointing out that the link between house prices and household spending has loosened markedly in... 14th February 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MPC may be too sanguine on link between housing & spending The Monetary Policy Committee has soothed concerns over the recent slowdown in the housing market by pointing out that the link between house prices and household spending has loosened markedly in... 14th February 2005 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus UK Economics Special - Will the housing downturn derail the economy? The housing market is slowing and, if history is anything to go by, that spells seriously bad news for the UK economy. Each of the three previous major housing downturns since the 1960s has been... 29th September 2004 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus US house price boom set to end US house prices have staged the biggest continuous rise in their history. The resulting overvaluation may not be as severe as that in the UK and Australia, but it is still big enough to convince us... 20th July 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus MEW won’t prevent a household spending slowdown Conventional wisdom has it that mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), which rose to a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, has provided a strong boost to household spending and will continue to... 26th April 2004 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The return of negative equity With the threat of falling house prices around the corner, the question inevitably arises of whether we are about to see a return of the widespread negative equity of the 1990s, when thousands of... 20th November 2003 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Mortgage refinancing in the US: the boom is over The continued strength of consumer spending in the US over the past two years, despite a recession and big stockmarket losses, is principally due to the boom in mortgage refinancing, caused by low... 2nd December 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Housing forms a major barrier to UK adoption of the euro Structural differences between the UK and continental European housing markets are a major barrier to Britain adopting the euro. Because of the large proportion of variable-rate mortgages in the UK... 26th July 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The house price earnings ratio is a good measure of housing valuations – and it is signalling danger. We have long argued that houses are over-valued, based on evidence from the house-price earnings ratio (HPE). But some commentators argue that the HPE is no longer a credible leading indicator of... 20th June 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus House prices – the alarm bells are ringing House prices are currently rising by between 14% and 16% a year, giving rise to fears of a looming crash. A key indicator of whether or not house prices are sustainable is their relationship to... 12th April 2002 · 1 min read
