Asia Economics Focus Construction rebound to help Japan steer well clear of recession The recovery in the construction sector should prevent an outright fall in Japanese GDP in the second quarter and contribute around 0.7 percentage points to growth in the year as whole. The economy is... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Construction rebound to help Japan steer well clear of recession The recovery in the construction sector should prevent an outright fall in Japanese GDP in the second quarter and contribute around 0.7 percentage points to growth in the year as whole. The economy is... 22nd July 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Diverging house price surveys reflect timing issues – little more All the major indices have now reported some falls in average house prices. But the scale of those falls varies wildly. Should we be concerned? At one extreme, the Halifax and Nationwide have reported... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling house prices pile further pressure on Spain The latest housing market data from Spain revealed that house prices have begun to fall. Over the coming quarters, we expect the slowdown to pick up pace, causing a further downturn in the... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Financial losses from the consumer credit binge to reach $700bn We estimate that over the next three years the financial losses resulting from the surge in defaults on US mortgages and other consumer loans will add up to close to $700bn, or 6% of US GDP . Roughly... 23rd June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus House prices to fall by 35% In recent months, the housing market correction has gathered momentum. The economy is also poised for three years of sub-trend growth and unemployment looks set to reach a 12-year high. We believe... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bigger house price falls point to 50/50 chance of UK recession We now think that house prices will fall by about a third over the next 2 to 3 years, clearly increasing the chances of a recession in the UK economy to perhaps 50%. And with house prices still likely... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Bigger house price falls point to 50/50 chance of UK recession We now think that house prices will fall by about a third over the next 2 to 3 years, clearly increasing the chances of a recession in the UK economy to perhaps 50%. And with house prices still likely... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus House prices to fall by 35% In recent months, the housing market correction has gathered momentum. The economy is also poised for three years of sub-trend growth and unemployment looks set to reach a 12-year high. We believe... 17th June 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish consumers starting to flag The further fall in Swedish house prices in May adds weight to our view that household spending growth will slow sharply this year. This should ultimately prompt the Riksbank to cut rates in 2009. But... 16th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How far will new housing supply fall? We believe that new dwelling completions in England could fall from 175,000 last year to 135,000 by end-2009, a 25% drop. Past housing market corrections have triggered falls of at least 15% in new... 11th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update House price falls will dent consumer spending Yesterday’s news that house prices have now fallen by 7% on the Nationwide house price index has brought to the fore the disagreements about the impact of house price falls on consumer spending. We... 30th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update House price falls will dent consumer spending Yesterday’s news that house prices have now fallen by 7% on the Nationwide house price index has brought to the fore the disagreements about the impact of house price falls on consumer spending. We... 30th May 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus How vulnerable are Spanish banks to a property crash? The Spanish banking system looks in relatively good health compared to those of some other eurozone economies. Nonetheless, a major adjustment in the domestic property sector could still cause banks... 27th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The demand for second homes is set to plummet Over the past decade, the capital gains on residential property on offer have been an additional attraction to owning a second home. But now that the housing market correction is underway, second... 20th May 2008 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How much further will US house prices fall? Houses are still substantially over-valued even though prices have already fallen by around 10% on the Case-Shiller national index . An additional decline of between 10% and 15% this year would put... 19th May 2008 · 1 min read
