US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct. 16) Despite the decline in the Conference Board index of consumer confidence in October, it is still at a level consistent with annualised consumption growth of more than 2.5%. Furthermore, given that the... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m gain in house prices on the Case-Shiller measure in August was the largest for 10-months. Given very tight market conditions, that acceleration was expected, and further house price gains... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures remain elevated Much of the focus both before and after the RBI’s decision to cut the repo rate by 25bp (to 6.25%) in early October has been on the sharp fall in headline inflation over the past couple of months. But... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How much cheaper can high LTV lending get? Our calculations suggest that there is plenty of room for competitive pressures to narrow the spread between high LTV and mainstream mortgages. That said, with banks looking cautious ahead of Brexit... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still betting on soft landing for housing Although the Bank of Canada gave no indication in last week’s policy statement that it was considering an interest rate cut, Governor Stephen Poloz freely admitted in his press conference that an... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is the new-build premium really falling? The gap between the average price of new and existing homes now stands at a six year low. But that fall is mainly a reflection of limitations in the available data. There is little evidence that the... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Existing home sales rose by a respectable 3.2% m/m in September, helped by a welcome rise in the share of first-time buyers. But with inventory levels still very low, rising housing demand is more... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The sharp drop in housing starts in September was concentrated in the volatile multifamily sector, so shouldn’t ring too many alarm bells. And with building permits seeing a strong pick-up, much of... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Aug.) House price growth on the official index strengthened a touch August, all but confirming that the Brexit vote caused little damage. But with prices already high and economic growth set to be sluggish... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity to recover next year The housing market is starting to recover from the initial shock of the Brexit vote. But with prices already high, we don’t expect a return to business as usual. Rather, we think house price growth... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2016) Today’s Credit Conditions Survey shows that lenders became a little more cautious in the aftermath of the referendum. And while banks look set to relax conditions for mortgage lending in Q4, the... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank will remain on the sidelines this year The Bank of Canada is unlikely to announce any major changes to either its economic projections or policy stance next Wednesday. The apparent rebound in third-quarter GDP and the surge in employment... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Sep. 16) The current madness in Toronto’s housing market will predictably be blamed on foreigners, but the near-record 16.4% increase in house prices over the past 12 months is mainly due to low interest rates... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep. 16) September’s RICS survey shows to the first rise in buyer enquiries since March. But with economic growth set to moderate and house prices already high, we don’t expect house price growth to take off... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will Clinton’s proposals boost homeownership? Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The further rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in October suggests that the rebound in retail sales in August will be sustained in the coming months. That said, the survey does... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
