Japan Chart Pack Treading water Despite having a sizeable output gap, Japan’s economy has expanded at a pace no stronger than potential this year so slack in the economy has not been reduced. One reason is that consumer spending has... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What might the Trump victory mean for the housing market? Trump’s victory has been accompanied by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets now expect looser fiscal policy. All else equal, that will push up mortgage rates. To date, Trump has said little... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London housebuilding wobbles in Q3 London saw a sharp drop in housing starts during Q3, as builders paused to assess the Brexit vote’s effect on an already slowing market. But with the effect of the referendum looking comparatively... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity constrained by low inventory Mortgage applications for both refinance and home purchase have been on a steady downward trend since mid-September. The drop in refinancing can be attributed to rising mortgage interest rates, as... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) Data from Halifax point to house prices stagnating in the third quarter. That echoes the broad picture outlined by other indices that, while house price growth slowed in the wake of the referendum... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity gradually recovering The latest data show a housing market that is on the way to recovering from a brief post-referendum slowdown. Yet the tightness in active supply conditions looks set to persist, house prices are still... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Era of ultra-low mortgage rates drawing to a close The Fed looks set to hike the fed funds rate in December, heralding the end of the period of ultra-low mortgage interest rates which has persisted since 2010. We expect 30-year mortgage rates to rise... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) A rise in mortgage rates led a drop in refinancing activity in October, and a lack of housing inventory pushed applications for home purchase to their lowest level since the start of the year. With... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Oct.) September’s construction PMI rose marginally; a pleasant surprise given the consensus among forecasters was for a fall. The rise was driven by the commercial sub-index, although the sector’s PMI is... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Oct.) House prices held flat in October, while the annual rate of growth decelerated to 4.6%. Other data suggest that buyers are now starting to return to the market following the Brexit shock. But with... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) After seasonal adjustment, house prices on the Core-Logic measure jumped by 1.4% m/m in September. That reading will almost certainly be revised down next month, but even so it is clear that house... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Sep.) • Mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for the first time in four months in September, echoing last week’s message from the BBA data that the fall in mortgage lending has bottomed out. 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3) The drop in the homeownership rate in the second quarter was reversed in the third, as a favourable economic backdrop allowed for a gradual rise in first-time buyers. As a result, the number of rental... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Explaining recent developments in housing equity withdrawal Our estimate of housing equity withdrawal (HEW) shows that, in aggregate, households have yet to return to using their homes as a piggy bank. While the factors holding HEW back are likely to ease the... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) The small 3.1% m/m rise in new home sales in September comes after a significant downward revision to August’s reading, highlighting that low inventory levels are preventing any sustained rise in... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Sep. 16) Mortgage approvals rose for house purchase rose the first time in four months, suggesting that the recent fall in mortgage lending has bottomed out. That said, with the economic backdrop set to be... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
