US Housing Market Outlook Housing market can withstand higher interest rates Trump’s win will have two offsetting impacts on the housing market. Mortgage rates have already spiked since the election and will rise further. All else equal that will depress housing demand. Yet a... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada downplaying housing risks While it continues to warn about growing housing imbalances and risky mortgage lending, the Bank of Canada still believes there is only a low probability of a major housing correction happening... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) The 18.7% m/m drop in housing in starts in November was largely expected given the surge recorded in October. In any event, the drop was concentrated in the volatile multifamily sector. With... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Good start to the festive season There has been no sign of a let-up in the strong pace of high-street spending growth at the start of the festive season. But it seems doubtful that spending will maintain its recent strength in the... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Nov.) The annual house price inflation rate edged up to 11.9% in November, from 11.8%, driven by a further acceleration in Toronto’s red-hot housing market. While that trend might continue in the near term... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing UK House Price Index (Oct.) and MLAR statistics (Q3) Data from the official house price index show that house price growth cooled in October. And while data from the Bank of England suggests that borrower leverage rose in Q3, that is happening within... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) Another set of broadly positive data suggest that China is on track to end this year on a strong note. But signs that the property sector may now be entering a correction add weight to our view that... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Business Confidence (Oct.) House Prices (Q3) The rebound in business confidence in November supports our view that Australia is unlikely to fall into its first recession in 25 years in the fourth quarter. But the ABS house price data for the... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What to expect in 2017 China defied the bears this year with an economic turnaround that took many by surprise. But the current strength cannot be sustained and the risk now is that many don’t appreciate how soon growth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Activity steady while price growth cools With buyer numbers growing, the number of homes coming onto the market falling, and the stock of homes for sale at a record low, sellers have the upper hand. But with house prices so high and some... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus A closer look at the rental vacancy rate Over the next couple of years, the expected gradual increase in the homeownership rate will reduce demand for single-family rental homes. But lower foreclosures will also cut the supply of those... 8th December 2016 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) The sharp rise in mortgage rates following Trump’s win has had differing impacts on mortgage applications for refinance and home purchase. While refinancing activity continued to decline in November... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) The headline annual rate of house price growth picked up in November. That said the underlying picture still shows a cooling market. With house prices very high and some buyers still cautious... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) The October CoreLogic report provides further evidence that house price growth is gathering pace. Even accounting for the fact that the initial estimate of a 1.5% m/m gain will be revised down in due... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates on the rise following Trump win Trump’s win, and the expected fiscal stimulus that it will generate, has led to a sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields. In turn, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has increased to its highest level... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) House prices held broadly steady for a second consecutive month in November. With house prices already so high, and house price sentiment still a little short of pre-referendum levels, a pick-up in... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
