UK Housing Market Update Stress tests to put pressure on buy-to-let LTVs The introduction of the buy-to-let stress test should have little near-term impact. But in the longer term, the effect of the test on mortgage volumes will be amplified by the removal of mortgage... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market starting to cool One of the key drivers of the economic turnaround this year, the property market,is starting to cool. Growth in the prices of new residential properties slumped inOctober in the largest (tier 1 and... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Oct.) The national house price growth rate edged up to 11.8% in October, from 11.7%, driven entirely by Toronto’s hot housing market. While we expect that trend to continue in the very near term, stricter... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (2016 Q3) Subdued demand from prospective buy-to-let (BTL) landlords and home movers was behind the continued weakness in mortgage activity in Q3, while buoyant activity among first time buyers (FTBs) partially... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Sep.) Annual house price growth held steady in September. But revisions to the data paint a more subdued post-referendum picture than before, while the already high level of house prices will help to... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does Trump’s win mean for fiscal policy and the Fed? As it stands now, our working assumption is that Trump and Congress will agree on a fiscal stimulus early next year, nearly all of it tax cuts, worth somewhere between $3trn and $5trn over the next... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Hong Kong’s economy is currently growing close to trend, despite continued subdued growth in exports. The overheated property market remains the major concern, with the recent rebound in prices after... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Housing rent to remain a drag on inflation Falling rents have been a persistent drag on inflation in Japan. While condominium prices have surged since the launch of QQE, there is virtually no link between house prices and rents. Instead, rents... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) Housing demand grew for a second consecutive month in October, as buyers gradually returned to the market. But high house prices and a weaker economy will prevent this from being translated into house... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Treading water Despite having a sizeable output gap, Japan’s economy has expanded at a pace no stronger than potential this year so slack in the economy has not been reduced. One reason is that consumer spending has... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What might the Trump victory mean for the housing market? Trump’s victory has been accompanied by a rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets now expect looser fiscal policy. All else equal, that will push up mortgage rates. To date, Trump has said little... 9th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update London housebuilding wobbles in Q3 London saw a sharp drop in housing starts during Q3, as builders paused to assess the Brexit vote’s effect on an already slowing market. But with the effect of the referendum looking comparatively... 8th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity constrained by low inventory Mortgage applications for both refinance and home purchase have been on a steady downward trend since mid-September. The drop in refinancing can be attributed to rising mortgage interest rates, as... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) Data from Halifax point to house prices stagnating in the third quarter. That echoes the broad picture outlined by other indices that, while house price growth slowed in the wake of the referendum... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity gradually recovering The latest data show a housing market that is on the way to recovering from a brief post-referendum slowdown. Yet the tightness in active supply conditions looks set to persist, house prices are still... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Era of ultra-low mortgage rates drawing to a close The Fed looks set to hike the fed funds rate in December, heralding the end of the period of ultra-low mortgage interest rates which has persisted since 2010. We expect 30-year mortgage rates to rise... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
