US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales edged out a small gain in June, helped by a rise in first-time buyer numbers. But the months’ supply of homes for sale has fallen to its joint-lowest level for 11 years, and the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun. 2016) Although housing starts saw a solid rise in June, the bigger picture is that there has been no sustained upward progress in homebuilding activity for over a year now. But we suspect that as credit... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Official UK House Price Index (May.) The annual rate of house price growth held firm in May. And while house price growth in London is still running strong, survey data suggest that price growth in the capital will cool sharply over the... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - New LVR rules raise the chance of rates going below 2.0% Today’s announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand that it intends to tighten existing loan-to-value restrictions will not only go some way to addressing the risks to financial stability posed by... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Brexit will have limited impact on housing market The shock decision by UK voters to leave the European Union is being felt in the mortgage market. The subsequent sharp drop in 10-year Treasury yields has helped mortgage rates down to close to record... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economic growth already fading again After a brief surge at the start of this year, GDP growth has already slowed markedly in recent months. (See Chart.) Unfortunately, the recent limited rebound in commodity prices won’t be enough to... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun 2016) June’s RICS survey saw several key indicators fall to post-crisis lows, and was broadly consistent with our view that Brexit will drive down housing market activity and cool the rate of house price... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How big is the threat from property? The commercial property sector has so far been the main focal point of Brexit concerns. But there are reasons to be hopeful that its problems won’t push the broader economy into a deep recession. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Post-Brexit housing market: when will we know? It will be several weeks before we start to get hard data on how the housing market has reacted to the EU referendum outcome. Even then, the initial data may lend themselves to many different... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.) When the next edition of Charles Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics and Crashes is released , Canada’s housing market will warrant its own chapter. According to Teranet , the 11-city house price index... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2, 2016) Lenders reported a small drop in secured credit availability to households in the second quarter. But the availability of debt for commercial property fell sharply, and the outlook for Q3 looks... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2, 2016) Lenders reported a small drop in secured credit availability to households in the second quarter. But the availability of debt for commercial property fell sharply, and the outlook for Q3 looks... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus After the referendum - how will the housing market fare? The movements in housebuilder share prices in the past two weeks could be a sign that a slump in house price expectations is about to trigger a fresh house price correction. But if we are right, and... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jun.) The Halifax index reported a solid rise in house prices in May. But with the quarterly rate of growth having more than halved over the last few months, today’s data suggest that house price growth had... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will single-family housing starts ever recover? In order for housing starts to make sustained headway, building in the single-family sector needs to rise. For that to happen, builders need to shift production towards lower priced starter homes... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
