Global Commercial Property Update

Key themes for global commercial real estate in 2026

As the new year approaches, we are highlighting the key themes that we think will set the overarching narrative for global commercial real estate in 2026.

5th December 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2025)

The stagnation in the Halifax measure of house prices in November sends a weaker signal than the Nationwide release earlier this week. But with prices having only fallen once in the last six months...

5th December 2025 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Retail shines in a disappointing recovery

Below-trend economic growth and high interest rates will continue to weigh on all-property total returns, which we think will average just 5.5% p.a. over 2026-30. Of the major sectors, we think retail...

4th December 2025 · 21 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Nov. 25)

The headline CIPS construction PMI fell for the second consecutive month to a new post-pandemic low of 39.4 in November. The drop was broad-based across the sectors, with the housing balance seeing a...

4th December 2025 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (Nov 2025)

The second consecutive decline in mortgage activity in November, as the previous decline in mortgage rates came to an end, supports our view that home sales are unlikely to rise by as much as most...

3rd December 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

European residential outperformance to persist over 2026-30

Residential rent growth is set to slow over the next couple of years as wage growth moderates, but we expect it to remain above past averages given tight supply conditions. Meanwhile, we think yields...

2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (Nov. 2025)

The rise in the Nationwide measure of house prices in November provides further evidence that actual house prices have been more resilient to Budget uncertainty than some RICS sentiment indicators...

2nd December 2025 · 3 mins read

APAC Commercial Property Outlook

Narrow yield spreads to limit size and speed of the recovery

Asia-Pacific property faces a slow, uneven recovery as high risk-free rates and weak growth limit investment demand and therefore, prospects for yield-driven capital gains. Spreads over risk-free...

2nd December 2025 · 18 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 25)

The Fed looks set to cut interest rates again in December, but we think investors are too optimistic about further easing next year. We expect only one 25bp cut in 2026, compared with roughly 75bp of...

1st December 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Focus

ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growth

Aside from the monetary loosening undertaken by the ECB at the beginning of the global financial crisis, its interest rate cuts from mid-2024 to mid-2025 were the deepest over a 12-month period in its...

1st December 2025 · 15 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to UK commercial property (Oct. 25)

At £1.47bn, net lending to commercial property softened again in October, from the £1.65bn recorded in September. That pushed the three-month total down to £5.7bn, the lowest level since June.

1st December 2025 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

Six non-consensus calls for China for 2026

Almost everyone expects real economic growth in China to slow next year. But most forecasters think the picture will brighten in nominal terms thanks to a rebound in inflation and a bottoming out of...

1st December 2025 · 8 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Are first-time buyers fuelling the house prices rally?

The less stringent criteria for accessing the government’s support scheme for first-time home buyers hasn’t noticeably boosted overall housing demand. Indeed, the key constraint remains extremely...

1st December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australian housing can’t buck its affordability problem

Australia's house price growth picked up further in November and leading indicators suggest the rally has further to run. However, with the RBA unlikely to lower interest rates any further, mortgage...

1st December 2025 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Waning support for developers may drag on construction

Vanke's plan to delay repayment of an onshore bond points to fading state support for non-SOE developers. The risk this poses to financial stability is probably manageable. But it threatens to...

28th November 2025 · 6 mins read