Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the...

21st November 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Which retail cities have performed best?

Retail has suffered some severe blows over the last decade, but the nadir for the sector seems to have passed and for some time we have been talking about recovery ahead, albeit a weak one. In this...

20th November 2024 · 9 mins read

UK Housing Market Chart Pack

UK Housing Market Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still...

20th November 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Investment to pick up but remain sluggish in 2025

The recovery in euro-zone real estate investment has been weak in 2024, with total activity in the first three quarters little changed on 2023’s near-record-lows. However, prospects for 2025 are...

20th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Nov. 2024)

Lower mortgage rates appear to be finally sparking a recovery in the housing market, with home sales soaring to a two-and-a-half-year high last month and the sales-to-new listing ratio now pointing to...

19th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Larger rate cuts increase the scope for property yield falls

The larger and faster pace of ECB rate cuts we now expect means euro-zone government bond yields are likely to be lower in the coming years than previously forecast. This is positive for property...

19th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Oct. 2024)

The decline in housing starts in October was exactly as we had expected given the hit to construction in the South from recent hurricanes and should partially reverse in November. Beyond this, we...

19th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus

Muted housing recovery won’t prevent rapid rate cuts

While we expect the RBNZ to cut interest rates by the most since the GFC over the coming year, housing affordability was never as stretched at the start of an easing cycle as it was at the start of...

19th November 2024 · 12 mins read

US Commercial Property Focus

Silver tsunami to boost senior housing

The recent downturn in US commercial property has piqued investor interest in alternatives as they look to diversify. With an aging population, senior housing has a clear long run structural demand...

18th November 2024 · 14 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Rising household size will weigh on house prices

A plunge in the average household size kept housing demand strong during the pandemic even as population growth ground to a halt. RBA estimates suggest that the average household size has remained low...

18th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed

It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent...

14th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Trump win puts brakes on housing recovery

While Trump has vowed to lower mortgage rates to 3%, we expect the net effect of his policies to have the opposite effect, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer. With that in mind, we are changing...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Slower rate cuts won’t prevent solid house price gains

Our forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% now to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates...

14th November 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Consensus still expect office rent slowdown, CE more upbeat

The strength of prime office rent growth in Europe in recent years has surprised forecasters, however there is broad agreement that rental growth will slow next year. We share that view, but are less...

14th November 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct. 2024)

October’s RICS survey points to robust house price growth but the Budget means that mortgages rates will probably fall a bit slower than we previously thought, which will restrain house prices next...

14th November 2024 · 3 mins read