US Existing Home Sales (Jun. 2026)

Higher mortgage rates weighing on homebuying

The fall in existing home sales in June, together with the further rise in mortgage rates in recent months, continues to point to downside risks to our forecast for a modest pickup in sales over the rest of the year.

Seasonally adjusted existing home sales fell by 2.4% m/m to 4.09m annualised in June, from a slightly upwardly revised 4.19m in May. This leaves sales broadly in-line with their average so far this year, meaning the housing market is still struggling to gain momentum in an environment of rising mortgage rates. The regional breakdown showed sales rose by 2.2% in the Northeast, but fell in the South (-3.6%), the Midwest (-3%) and the West (-1.3%).

There are some tentative signs that home sales could pick up from here, with mortgage applications rising to a five-month high in June. But the further jump in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.6% last month suggests that sales will continue to struggle. Indeed, given the usual 1-2 month lag between sale agreements and closings, the impact from higher mortgage rates is yet to fully feed through. Accordingly, risks to our forecast for home sales to pick up to 4.3mn annualised by the end of the year are skewed to the downside.