Canada Economics Update

Housing Watch (Dec. 2024)

The rise in home sales in November builds on the jump in October and is particularly positive considering some buyers may have held off from purchases ahead of the new mortgage rules that took effect...

16th December 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Total returns to turn positive in 2025, but offices still weigh

The backdrop to our new real estate forecasts is a small reduction in our GDP forecasts and higher level of interest rates than previously. This weighs on the outlook, and we have trimmed our total...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

Rental growth the key driver of the property recovery

The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will be a weak one, even though several European central banks, including the ECB, are forecast to cut interest rates to a lower level than...

12th December 2024 · 27 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

What’s really happening with new build house prices?

The Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) November house price data release indicates unusually large increases in new build house prices in recent months. We suspect that this reported rise does not...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths

Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery...

12th December 2024 · 20 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2024)

November’s RICS survey provides further evidence that housing activity and prices remained resilient to the rise in mortgage rates in November. And our view that mortgage rates will start to fall...

12th December 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

What happens if gilt yields don’t fall back?

Our forecast that commercial real estate is set for a modest recovery is dependent on our view that a decline in gilt yields will help stabilise property yields. But if interest rates don’t fall back...

11th December 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Rental growth to pick-up as apartment supply drops off

The peak in new apartment supply has passed, with completions set to drop back sharply over the next few years. If demand continues to hold up well as we expect, this should put downward pressure on...

10th December 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

What’s keeping real estate investors awake at night?

A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that...

9th December 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2024)

The leap in Halifax house prices in November mirrors the jump in the Nationwide measure and suggests that some relief rally or release of pent-up demand after the Budget has more than offset the...

6th December 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

No holiday cheer for CRE debt

Our expectation of rising evidence of distressed assets in 2024 has come to bear, but we think more is still to come over the next couple of years. Some of that will stem from matured loans requiring...

5th December 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Dec. 2024)

Lower interest rates are yet to do much to spur the economy, but green shoots are emerging, with the timely activity surveys picking up and the newly-announced mini-fiscal stimulus expected to boost...

5th December 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Nov. 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI increased to 55.2 in November, from 54.3 in October, indicating an expansion of construction activity.

5th December 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Nov. 2024)

The rebound in purchase mortgage applications in November shows that there were some signs of life in the market, despite the return of 7% mortgage rates. But taking a step back, activity remains...

4th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Will there be a retail renaissance in Paris?

Paris retail rents surged in Q3 raising hopes for a sustained revival. But this jump probably reflects a temporary boost from the Olympics and momentum is expected to fade next year. Despite this, we...

4th December 2024 · 3 mins read