UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS UK Construction PMI (Dec. 25)

The slight rise in the headline CIPS construction PMI in December 2025 to 40.1, from 39.4 in November, left the index firmly in contractionary territory. The rise was driven entirely by an improvement...

7th January 2026 · 1 min read

APAC Commercial Property Update

Weak total returns continue into 2026 amid tight yield spreads

Asia-Pacific property markets have performed largely in line with our mid-2025 forecasts, with investment activity recovering only moderately and returns held back by falling capital values. We expect...

7th January 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

House price growth to beat the consensus forecast in 2026

Lower inflation, lower interest rates, continued tight supply of new homes and the prospect of more high loan-to-income mortgage lending means we think annual house price growth will accelerate from 1...

6th January 2026 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

D.C. & Miami remain bottom of the apartment rankings

The apartment market appears to have turned a corner, with the national vacancy rate stabilizing in recent quarters as new supply moderates, which we expect will restore some pricing power to building...

6th January 2026 · 7 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

UK commercial property returns to hit five-year high in 2026

As we expected, and in contrast to consensus, all-property yields saw no compression in 2025. But stronger-than-expected rental growth means our call for all-property total returns of 6.6% in 2025...

6th January 2026 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Reviewing our key calls for 2025

The recovery in European property values in 2025 was broadly as we forecasted. However, the drivers differed slightly from our expectations, with a smaller-than-expected fall in prime property yields...

6th January 2026 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Reviewing our 2025 key calls for US CRE

Although we were right in expecting a slow recovery in investment transactions in 2025 and for office CMBS delinquency rates to climb further, stretched valuations did not result in another fall in...

5th January 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to UK commercial property (Nov. 25)

Net lending secured against commercial property accelerated again in November, reaching £2.49bn, the second strongest monthly increase since May 2020 when banks granted interest payment holidays.

5th January 2026 · 1 min read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (Nov. 2025)

November’s money and lending figures suggest that while the pre-Budget speculation about tax rises had little influence on households’ borrowing decisions, they were inclined to save a bit more.

5th January 2026 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Bank of Japan isn’t falling behind the curve just yet

We aren’t convinced that the Bank of Japan is falling behind the curve despite the recent acceleration in bank lending. Nonetheless, there are few signs that BoJ rate hikes are resulting in tighter...

5th January 2026 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

UK Nationwide House Prices (Dec. 2025)

December’s 0.4% m/m decline in Nationwide house prices rounds off a tough year for the housing market and suggests the combination of still-high mortgage rates and weak employment are still weighing...

2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Australia’s housing rally will soon slow in earnest

Australia’s house price rally lost some steam in December and if we’re right that the Reserve Bank of Australia will lift interest rates as soon as February this slowdown has further to run.

2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook

Plenty of rent gains left in top southern office markets

The office sector may be turning a corner, but there remain big differences in metro performance. Southern metros look set to dominate the winners, with Austin, Miami and Dallas coming out on top for...

30th December 2025 · 7 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Oct. 2025)

The healthy 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in October adds to evidence that the housing market has regained some momentum following the 75bp fall in mortgage rates earlier this year. Prices are now on...

30th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Are we too pessimistic about CEE retail rents?

So far CEE markets have proved more resilient to the slowdown in European retail rents. While risks still skew to the upside, we expect that CEE retail rent growth rates will slow further, with...

23rd December 2025 · 3 mins read