UK Commercial Property Update

Why are residential yields so low?

Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for...

25th June 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Strong US dollar to weigh on hotel recovery; West to trail

After a strong recovery post-pandemic, momentum in hotel revenue growth is likely to remain subdued over the next few years. With a stronger US dollar hindering the revival of the tourist industry, we...

25th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Munich office rent boom has further to go, Berlin trails

We are generally pessimistic about the rental outlook in Germany, however, this conceals large variance across cities – most notably for offices between leader Munich and laggard Berlin. Munich prime...

25th June 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr. 2024)

The second consecutive moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in April could be a sign that the increase in home listings this year has cooled the market. We think rising supply will eventually be...

25th June 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economic Outlook

Manufacturing boom to shore up growth a while longer

China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook.

25th June 2024 · 15 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (May 2024)

Existing home sales were essentially flat in May which is somewhat puzzling given that pending home sales and home purchase mortgage applications, which lead transactions by a month, both fell...

21st June 2024 · 1 min read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why we think yield compression will be limited

With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook

Southern metros set to outperform

The office sector faces another two years of value falls, led down by Seattle and San Francisco, where cumulative declines will be around 25%-30%. But our latest forecasts highlight the brighter spots...

20th June 2024 · 7 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (May 2024)

The drop in housing starts in May is consistent with the recent slowdown in permit issuance, pointing to construction continuing to falter this year.

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jun. 24)

Capital values are close to bottoming out in most sectors as yields have stabilised. However, with no yield compression and moderating rental growth the recovery will be weak by past standards, not...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Political uncertainty to hit French property values

Investor concerns about the upcoming snap legislative elections have pushed up French government bond yields and we think they will rise further over the rest of the year. This has worsened the...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Downtowns will recover, but not any time soon

The gap between downtown and suburban office vacancy rates has widened alarmingly since 2020. This reflects pandemic-driven changes to working patterns, exacerbated by the cyclical slowdown. In our...

18th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Canada Housing Watch (Jun. 2024)

The housing market was soft in May, with sales and prices edging down, but we expect conditions to improve over the rest of the year as the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates further and mortgage...

17th June 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding

With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of...

14th June 2024 · 9 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

London office starts spell trouble for non-prime space

The latest Crane Survey reported that a record high 16.4m sq. ft. of London office space was under construction in Q1. That in part reflects developers delaying projects until the demand outlook...

13th June 2024 · 3 mins read