US Commercial Property Update New supply won’t have major impact on industrial rental growth Despite a higher construction pipeline for distribution warehouses, we think that a high share of pre-let space, coupled with strong demand, means vacancy will only be 20bps higher over the next few... 27th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing proposals unlikely to amount to much Housing has emerged as one of the key issues in the federal election campaign but, even if some of the latest proposals are implemented, we doubt that they would have much impact on house prices. 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property comedown, vaccine setback The macro backdrop behind Evergrande’s latest profit warning is a rapidly cooling property market. Home sales have fallen below 2019 levels in recent weeks, with the prop to demand from excess... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update How vulnerable are house prices to a rise in rates? Our forecast for mortgage rates to rise to 4.2% by end-2023 will help slow house price gains, but we don’t think that increase will be enough to cause an outright fall in values. And with homes not... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Robust demand and limited stock to support prices The housing market cooled in July as the stamp duty holiday began to unwind. Newly agreed sales and buyer enquiries dropped back, annual house price growth began to stabilise, and transactions fell... 25th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Scandinavia & Switzerland: Strong investor demand Data for Q2 confirm that, as with the economic recovery, the property upturn is more advanced in Scandinavia than in western Europe. Investment activity grew strongly, even when excluding a large one... 25th August 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Slow and uneven revival to continue The economic recovery has lost some momentum over the summer, but we expect that this will be a temporary setback and the backdrop will be strong into the medium term. There is growing evidence of a... 25th August 2021 · 26 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) After a run of declines, new home sales eked out a small gain in July. The recent weakness in sales data likely reflects homebuilders restricting sales as they try to catch-up with the surge in demand... 24th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Emerging Europe: Retail rental falls still on the cards In line with the economic recovery, there were growing signs that property markets have turned a corner in Q2. All-property rents rose on the quarter, while the all-property yield dipped on the back... 24th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul) Existing home sales surprised on the upside in July, rising for the second consecutive month. But with demand easing and inventory at record lows, we doubt this is the start of a resurgence. Instead... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property valuations stabilise in Q2 Following a sharp deterioration in the previous quarter, property valuations held steady in Q2. But while changes so far in Q3 point to only a slight worsening in valuations, we expect Treasury yields... 23rd August 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Jul.) The Teranet measure of house price inflation accelerated to a 32-year high in July and is on track to pick up further in August. That should mark the peak but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio... 19th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing End of eviction ban won’t stop recovery in rents The eviction ban has been extended to early October, but we doubt it will be renewed again. Given the strength of the labour market, significant government support and robust rental demand, the... 19th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Office metro-level divergence to persist After a period of strong economic growth in H1 2021, with high inflation squeezing incomes and the spread of the Delta variant, the outlook for H2 is less positive. That said, we don’t expect this to... 18th August 2021 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Single-family starts edged back in July, although they but remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels. Shortages in lots, labour and materials are weighing on builder confidence and housing starts... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Are PDRs the answer to mis-matches in supply? New plans have extended Permitted Development Rights (PDRs) on commercial property, allowing swifter conversion to residential use. These have been cautiously welcomed, but, in our view, they do not... 18th August 2021 · 3 mins read
