UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The large rise in the Halifax house price index in September suggests that we are right to think that robust demand and limited inventory will mean that prices record further gains after the stamp... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) Home purchase applications rose for the first time in six months in September, even as mortgage rates increased to a 14-week high by the end of the month. But we expect a further rise in mortgage... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep.) The further drop in the construction PMI in September suggested that the recovery in construction has faltered amid a severe lack of materials and staff, spiralling costs, and softening demand. 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update A property tax could make up for fewer land sales Local governments in China are far less reliant on land sales as a source of revenue than is often claimed. While slowing real estate development will create a funding gap, it could be more than... 5th October 2021 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Will remote working migrants drive office demand? In-migration to southern metros with relatively low living costs and high desirability will be positive for office demand in those same metros. We think firms will be encouraged to set up offices in... 4th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Major Apartment Markets Outlook (Q3 2021) The apartment market is set for a stellar year. The reopening of cities is bringing vacancy rates down and pushing rents up, and strong investor demand has led to a sharp fall in yields. We expect... 1st October 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly CMHC sounds the alarm (again) It’s hard to argue against the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) latest warning that house prices look vulnerable to a correction. Indeed, we expect prices to fall in several cities by... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Modest rate hikes won’t prevent house price gains We doubt that a larger rise in Bank Rate over the next two years than we previously expected will put much upward pressure on mortgage rates. Low interest rates and increased spending on housing costs... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) House prices have continued to surge despite the recent lockdowns. But we expect house price growth to slow next year as affordability constraints bite and macroprudential limits are imposed. 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property markets to take early rate hike in their stride With UK policy rates now set to rise as early as next spring, this has tipped the risks to our commercial property outlook to the downside. But we don’t think the change is significant enough to make... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Oslo property returns have peaked Rising government bond yields are set to squeeze valuations, resulting in increases in Oslo all-property yields after 2022. This will weigh on returns for Oslo property in the coming years, with... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) The only small gain in house prices in September suggests that house price growth slowed as the stamp duty holiday was withdrawn. But with inventory limited and demand resilient, we suspect that house... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Aug.) Delta variant fears resulted in leisure and hospitality employment falling in 12 of the 30 metros. Of these, Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte and Dallas were the worst hit. Leisure and hospitality... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Fall in first-time buyers will help boost inventory Soaring house prices and tight credit conditions have pushed the first-time buyer share to a joint six-year low which, alongside strong housing starts, has arrested the decline in the for-sale home... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Aug.) Net lending to property decreased for the third consecutive month in August, driven by falls in both lending for standing investment and development. Looking ahead, we think that tight credit... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) While still above pre-COVID-19 levels mortgage approvals edged down in August, suggesting no great rush to move before the stamp duty holiday taper ends at the end of September. But an increase in the... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
