US Housing Market Update Outlook good for mortgage delinquencies Low mortgage rates, strong earnings growth, plenty of cash savings and a surge in home equity have pushed the early mortgage delinquency rate to a record low this year. Most of those factors will... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus still underestimating impact of remote work The IPF Consensus forecasts for euro-zone prime office rental growth in 2021 have been revised up, consistent with the more positive recent data. However, expectations were revised down slightly for... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China Activity & Spending (Oct.) Industrial growth rebounded last month as energy shortages eased. But this pick-up is likely to be short-lived given the deepening downturn in property construction. And while retail sales also... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct.) Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fifth consecutive month in October, driven by positive net lending in both residential and commercial real estate (CRE) sectors. We think that this... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policymakers are stressing developers not markets This week’s sell-off in Chinese high-yield dollar bonds is not a good measure of the stress facing Chinese developers. These bonds account for less than a tenth of developer debt. Their key creditors... 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Increase in mortgage rates to be limited Anticipation of higher interest rates has pushed up fixed mortgage rates. And with scope for banks to absorb higher costs in their margins now exhausted, future changes in interest rate expectations... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations deteriorate as spreads narrow Compared to bonds and equities, property valuations deteriorated further in Q3. This was due to a combination of a fall in property yields on the one side and a rise in both bond and equity yields on... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch industrial rental growth catching up with EZ A healthy occupier backdrop and a shortage of supply should allow prime industrial rents in the Netherlands to continue to grow at a steady pace over the coming years. As a result, after years of... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Data point to upside, but outlook still fragile The latest real estate data came in stronger than expected. But while there have been encouraging developments, particularly in the retail sector, we think this signals a short-term boost to prospects... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) Rather than representing a “rush before mortgage rates rise”, we suspect that the rise in new buyer interest in October will prove durable. With inventory very limited, that points to house prices... 11th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price growth cools as rents take off The homeowner and rental markets are starting to swap places, with home sales and prices cooling as rental demand and rents take off. Rising mortgage rates have started to bring housing demand down... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Bank on South Florida for office rental growth The faster-than-average recovery in financial sector employment in the Miami metro owes much to new office openings by banking and finance firms in the last 18 months. This has made Miami one of the... 8th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Outlook Higher interest rates to dab on the brakes We think it will take longer than most others expect for rising interest rates to bring down the curtain on the COVID-19 house price boom. A large stock of household savings, the ongoing adjustment to... 8th November 2021 · 22 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German retail vacancy to remain elevated The latest data show that conditions in the German retail sector are improving. Nevertheless, we think vacancy will be slow to reverse as pandemic shifts lead to weakness in in-store demand... 8th November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Dovish surprise reduces housing market risks The indication from the Bank of England that Bank Rate of 1.25% would be too high for the economy suggests that the forthcoming rise in interest rates won’t be anywhere near large enough to topple the... 5th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update REITs hint at upside risk for industrial and apartments REIT pricing appears consistent with our view that retail values are nearing a turning point while office values have a bit further to fall. But a strong recovery in industrial and apartment REITs... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
