UK Housing Market Chart Pack Prices to continue rising as stamp duty holiday elapses There is no doubt that demand cooled after the stamp duty discount was reduced. But a collapse in new listings has eclipsed the decline in new buyer demand, suggesting that prices will at least hold... 21st September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stimulus cheques help explain house price rebound After beginning to slow at the turn of the year, house price growth has since got a second wind. We suspect the key driver behind that resurgence was the arrival of the third round of stimulus cheques... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Three reasons why Chicago will emerge a winner Chicago’s office market will not escape the gloomy outlook caused by the shift to remote working. But we expect the low level of rents, the small share of jobs in the information sector, and a... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the rental backlog derail the retail recovery? One feature of the COVID-19 era has been persistent non-payment of rents, particularly in the retail and leisure sectors. But we don’t think this will come to a head next year once the eviction ban... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property sector leverage, China’s CPTPP bid Evergrande is the poster child for the excesses of China’s property sector, and its short-term liabilities are particularly high. But the sector is full of similarly-leveraged peers. Indeed, nearly... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Sector fortunes to shift While the Delta variant has slowed economic activity in other parts of the world, this has not yet been the case in the euro-zone, and we are cautiously optimistic that the bloc will continue to grow... 16th September 2021 · 31 mins read
UK Housing Market Update House price boom has further to run The end of the stamp duty holiday may do little to dampen demand and homes for sale are in short supply. The upshot is that house price growth will remain strong into next year, so we have revised up... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the global property upturn? The most recent commercial property data have been surprisingly upbeat and have raised the possibility that the recovery could be stronger than expected. But we think investors may have run ahead of... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Property crunch will be followed by lasting decline The root of Evergrande’s troubles – and those of other highly-leveraged developers – is that residential property demand in China is entering an era of sustained decline. Relaxation of regulatory... 15th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Update New apartments will start to get larger soon Apartments kept getting smaller in the second quarter of this year, with the median floor space of units falling to under 1,000 sq. ft., the lowest since records began in 1999. That trend seems at... 14th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q2 21) The further surge in mortgage lending to a fresh post-financial-crisis high and booming house prices begs the question whether there is over-exuberance in the housing market. But as the surge has been... 14th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Aug.) All real estate sectors saw growth in outstanding debt for the second consecutive month in August. What’s more, the third consecutive monthly increase in commercial real estate debt of more than $10bn... 10th September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Retail on the cusp of a recovery This quarter there are short-term upgrades to all four major sector forecasts for 2021 on the back of strong investor demand for assets, which is driving up prices. Those upgrades mean that returns in... 10th September 2021 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Soaring prices and lack of supply weigh on activity Mortgage rates have been stable at close to record lows since mid-July, but that hasn’t prevented a decline in housing demand. New home sales are down 28% from their peak last year and while existing... 9th September 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Update Evergrande circling the plughole Evergrande’s collapse would be the biggest test that China’s financial system has faced in years. Policymakers’ main priority would be the households that have handed over deposits for properties that... 9th September 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.) While demand continued to soften in August limited stock on the market points to house price inflation remaining high in the near term. And despite the end of the stamp duty holiday, surveyors expect... 9th September 2021 · 2 mins read
