UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Slight worsening in property valuations

On our measure, property looked slightly worse value relative to bond and equities in Q2. The worsening was due to a marked fall in property yields, driven by the industrial sector. Outside of over...

16th August 2021 · 6 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

What if we are wrong about interest rates?

While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) became more hawkish at its August meeting, an increase in interest rates on the scale it expects would not undermine house prices. But more stubborn inflation...

16th August 2021 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Luxury won’t shield Paris retailers from e-commerce

We expect prime retail rents in both Lyon and Paris to struggle to make up lost ground this year, and even after a return to growth next year, the pace of increases will be subdued.

16th August 2021 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Jul.)

Outstanding real estate debt growth accelerated in July, supported by increases in residential, multifamily and non-farm commercial real estate debt. And with demand for loans growing on the back of...

13th August 2021 · 2 mins read

Asset Allocation Chart Pack

Three recent trends we expect to last

We expect several of the trends that have tentatively (re-)emerged in financial markets recently to persist.

12th August 2021 · 13 mins read

US Housing Market Focus

The last house price boom?

The housing market is highly cyclical, and the current price boom marks the fifth episode since 1970 where real house price growth has exceeded 5% y/y. But there are good reasons to think this will...

12th August 2021 · 19 mins read

UK Housing Market Data Response

RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.)

Despite new buyer enquiries dropping back in July, house prices continued to rise as buyers competed for limited stock.

12th August 2021 · 2 mins read

US Housing

Home sales and house prices to moderate

The share of households seeing now as a good time to buy a home has fallen to 39-years lows, as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and record low inventory have weighed on sentiment. But...

11th August 2021 · 9 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Retail yield stabilisation not a sign of a turning point

Following larger-than-expected falls in Q2 and positive near-term developments, we expect prime office and industrial yields to end the year lower than previously forecast. However, we think prime...

11th August 2021 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Focus

What will COVID-19 mean for the largest global cities?

Cities are central to property performance. And the largest are seen as hugely important by investors. But the pandemic has turned many received ideas about real estate on their head and we think that...

10th August 2021 · 20 mins read

UK Markets

Economy and policy to provide a bit less support

The recent downward revision to our GDP growth forecasts and the recent hawkish signs from the Bank of England which prompted us to bring forward our forecast of when monetary policy will be tightened...

9th August 2021 · 12 mins read

Canada Economics

Exports heating up as housing cools

There was more evidence that the housing market is cooling this week, with home sales slipping to 12-month lows in seasonally adjusted terms in both Toronto and Vancouver. The good news, however, is...

6th August 2021 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property

Helsinki offices to continue to outperform euro-zone

Following better-than-expected Q2 data, we have revised up our Helsinki office returns forecasts for this year. And given a robust rental outlook, returns are set to outpace the euro-zone over the...

6th August 2021 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Data Response

Halifax House Prices (Jul.)

Halifax house prices returned to growth on a monthly last month, partly reversing a weak June figure. But the underlying trend, as the stamp duty discount is phased out, is for a modest slowdown...

6th August 2021 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Construction Market Survey (Q2)

The latest RICS survey confirmed that construction activity rose strongly in Q2 and suggests expectations are upbeat about the outlook. But while we think output is likely to remain strong in the...

5th August 2021 · 2 mins read