Latin America Economics Update Colombia: current account concerns growing Colombia’s current account deficit is widening, making the recovery vulnerable to a deterioration in global risk appetite that we expect later this year. The country’s weak external position is likely... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombian GDP growth edged up from 2.7% y/y in Q3 to 2.8% y/y in Q4, but while the consensus expects growth to be stronger this year, we expect it to slow. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Ecopetrol sale won’t solve fiscal problems A partial sale of Colombia’s state-owned oil company, Ecopetrol, now appears likely and should limit the scale of fiscal austerity, particularly in 2020. But Colombia is yet to fully adjust to low oil... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for interest rates in the Andes? The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in Chile means we now think that the central bank will pause its tightening cycle until next year (previously we expected 50bp of hikes... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s referendums, Colombia’s fiscal challenge The market reaction to the incoming Mexican government’s public consultation is unlikely to be as bad as the last one, which voted to scrap a flagship airport project. Even so, it provides more... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2018) Colombian GDP growth edged down from 2.8% y/y in Q2 to 2.7% y/y in Q3, and while the consensus expects growth to be stronger next year, we expect it to slow further in 2019. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five questions on Colombia’s tax reform The tax reform introduced to Colombia’s congress is unlikely to pass in its current form, but even a diluted version would result in tighter fiscal policy, higher inflation and, ultimately, more... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB independence, Banxico could resist calls for hike A bill to make Brazil’s central bank formally independent, which has been rumoured this week, would boost market optimism about Jair Bolsonaro’s reform promise and have positive long-term economic... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in the Colombian peso ahead The Colombian peso has fallen by more than other Latin American currencies since August, and we expect a further underperformance over the next two years as oil prices fall, balance sheet... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tightening cycles in the Andes to begin soon The Andean economies of Chile, Peru, and Colombia all appear to be close to raising interest rates. In this Update, we take a closer look at what has triggered central banks to begin tightening cycles... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2018) Colombian GDP growth increased from 2.2% y/y in Q1 to 2.8% y/y in Q2, and we think the recovery will strengthen by more than the consensus expects over the coming quarters. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Financial conditions tighten in key economies Argentina’s currency crisis has caused financial conditions there to tighten sharply in the past few months, and this is one reason why we expect the economy to fall into recession in the coming... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Duque victory, but tax cuts could be delayed The victory for business-friendly candidate Iván Duque in Colombia’s presidential election looks largely priced in and should have a limited impact on local markets in the coming days. Investors will... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Duque on course to inherit strengthening economy The victory for centre-right candidate Iván Duque in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday was largely expected and, as such, has had little impact on local financial markets... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Duque presidency mean for Colombia? Centre-right candidate Iván Duque looks set to win the first round of Colombia’s presidential election next week, and if he also prevails in the second round – as seems likely – he will inherit an... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s easing cycle probably at an end The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate on Friday night by 25bp (to 4.25%) probably marks the last move in the easing cycle. We expect the policy rate to be left... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
