Latin America Economics Update Are investors too sanguine on Colombian debt? Colombia’s public debt ratio will rise sharply this year and we disagree with the consensus view that it will fall back from 2021. This is likely to limit any recovery in the Colombian bond market... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia cuts rates, more easing in store The statement accompanying the Colombian central bank’s decision to cut the policy rate by 50bp to 3.25% left the door open for more easing. Given the scale of the economic hit that we expect, the... 1st May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombian growth to slow even if oil prices recover Fears about the coronavirus have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for Colombia’s economy. But even if – as we expect, the virus is brought under control soon and oil prices... 24th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2019) Colombian GDP growth ticked down to 3.4% y/y in Q4 from 3.5% y/y in Q3 and we think that growth will slow further this year. The consensus expectations for growth look too optimistic. 14th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian household spending set to weaken Colombia’s economic recovery since 2017 has been in large part due to strength in private consumption, but we think it will likely slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our 2020 growth... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian investment set to slow We think that low oil prices and a continued slump in the property sector will cause investment growth in Colombia to slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our growth forecasts sit at... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2019) Colombian GDP growth remained strong in Q2 at 3.0% y/y, and we’ve revised up our forecast for 2019 from 2.0% to 2.8%. But we still think that the consensus forecasts are too optimistic. 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia unlikely to join global easing cycle A number of major central banks in Latin America are on the cusp of joining the global easing cycle but, in contrast to the prevailing view, we don’t think that Colombia will be one of them. We expect... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in store for the Colombian peso The Colombian peso has been the worst performing EM currency so far this month and we expect it to fall by another 8% or so against the dollar by year-end. The resulting rise in inflation is likely to... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q1 2019) The pick-up in Colombian GDP growth from 2.7% y/y in Q4 to 2.8% y/y in Q1 was driven in large part by robust domestic demand. While the consensus expects momentum to pick up this year, we expect... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: judging the impact of the Venezuelan crisis The collapse of Venezuela’s economy has placed strains on Colombia’s social welfare system but, if anything, it is actually likely to have a small positive impact on Colombian GDP growth. 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: current account concerns growing Colombia’s current account deficit is widening, making the recovery vulnerable to a deterioration in global risk appetite that we expect later this year. The country’s weak external position is likely... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombian GDP growth edged up from 2.7% y/y in Q3 to 2.8% y/y in Q4, but while the consensus expects growth to be stronger this year, we expect it to slow. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Ecopetrol sale won’t solve fiscal problems A partial sale of Colombia’s state-owned oil company, Ecopetrol, now appears likely and should limit the scale of fiscal austerity, particularly in 2020. But Colombia is yet to fully adjust to low oil... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for interest rates in the Andes? The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in Chile means we now think that the central bank will pause its tightening cycle until next year (previously we expected 50bp of hikes... 18th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s referendums, Colombia’s fiscal challenge The market reaction to the incoming Mexican government’s public consultation is unlikely to be as bad as the last one, which voted to scrap a flagship airport project. Even so, it provides more... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
