Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2018) Colombian GDP growth edged down from 2.8% y/y in Q2 to 2.7% y/y in Q3, and while the consensus expects growth to be stronger next year, we expect it to slow further in 2019. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Five questions on Colombia’s tax reform The tax reform introduced to Colombia’s congress is unlikely to pass in its current form, but even a diluted version would result in tighter fiscal policy, higher inflation and, ultimately, more... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB independence, Banxico could resist calls for hike A bill to make Brazil’s central bank formally independent, which has been rumoured this week, would boost market optimism about Jair Bolsonaro’s reform promise and have positive long-term economic... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in the Colombian peso ahead The Colombian peso has fallen by more than other Latin American currencies since August, and we expect a further underperformance over the next two years as oil prices fall, balance sheet... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tightening cycles in the Andes to begin soon The Andean economies of Chile, Peru, and Colombia all appear to be close to raising interest rates. In this Update, we take a closer look at what has triggered central banks to begin tightening cycles... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2018) Colombian GDP growth increased from 2.2% y/y in Q1 to 2.8% y/y in Q2, and we think the recovery will strengthen by more than the consensus expects over the coming quarters. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Financial conditions tighten in key economies Argentina’s currency crisis has caused financial conditions there to tighten sharply in the past few months, and this is one reason why we expect the economy to fall into recession in the coming... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Duque victory, but tax cuts could be delayed The victory for business-friendly candidate Iván Duque in Colombia’s presidential election looks largely priced in and should have a limited impact on local markets in the coming days. Investors will... 18th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Duque on course to inherit strengthening economy The victory for centre-right candidate Iván Duque in the first round of Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday was largely expected and, as such, has had little impact on local financial markets... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Duque presidency mean for Colombia? Centre-right candidate Iván Duque looks set to win the first round of Colombia’s presidential election next week, and if he also prevails in the second round – as seems likely – he will inherit an... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s easing cycle probably at an end The decision by Colombia’s central bank to cut its policy interest rate on Friday night by 25bp (to 4.25%) probably marks the last move in the easing cycle. We expect the policy rate to be left... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weakness in Colombian investment to be temporary Colombia’s economic recovery has been held back by weak investment which appears to be a result of the recent slump in the property market. But this property downturn now seems to have passed its... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia still open to rate cuts, Chile on hold for now Colombia’s central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 4.50% last night, but the accompanying statement left the door open for further easing in the near term. Meanwhile, Chile’s central bank kept... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: legislative elections pave way for Duque Right and centre-right parties secured the most seats in yesterday’s legislative elections in Colombia, bolstering the chances of an Iván Duque presidency and dealing a blow to left-wing candidates –... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for the Andes? We expect recoveries in Colombia, Chile and Peru to continue over the coming years as investment strengthens and consumer spending picks up. There are downside risks to the outlook – namely large... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: notes from the ground We have just returned from a week of meetings with clients and local contacts in Bogotá. In this Update, we summarise four key takeaways from our visit. 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
