Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a weaker-than-expected 2.9% y/y last month opens the door to another 50bp cut in the Selic rate when Copom meets at the end of this month. 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform faces difficult final stretch Worsening relations between the Brazilian presidency and legislature threaten to delay the much-vaunted pension bill and will keep markets on tenterhooks in the coming weeks. It still looks like the... 3rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The better-than-expected 0.8% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production was driven by rapid growth in the mining sector, which won’t be sustained. Even so, the figures add to the evidence that the... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep.) The Brazilian mid-month inflation figure of 3.2% y/y in September leaves the door open to further monetary easing over the coming months. Beyond that, the large output is likely to keep inflation... 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking Brazil’s fiscal reform plans The Brazilian government’s tax and budget reform plans would, if implemented, significantly improve the country’s longer-term fiscal health and productivity growth. But the proposals will face more... 18th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Aug.) The small rise in Brazilian inflation (to 3.4%y/y in August) is unlikely to trouble policymakers at the central bank. With the headline rate below target and the economy struggling, we expect a 50bp... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jul.) The surprising 0.3% m/m drop in Brazilian industrial production in July probably seals the deal on a 50bp interest rate cut at the next central bank meeting on 18th September. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q2 2019) The surprisingly strong 0.4% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q2 confirms that the extremely weak activity recorded earlier this year was a blip rather than the start of a renewed downturn. But the... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug.) The weaker-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 3.2% y/y, raises the likelihood that Copom will cut the Selic rate by 50bp (rather than 25bp) when it next meets on 18th September. 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA & Chile CPI (Jul.) The decline in inflation in Brazil and Chile in July points to further monetary easing, and we currently expect a 25bp interest rate cut in both countries next month. In Brazil, with pension reform... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The 0.6% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in June adds to the evidence that GDP contracted again in the second quarter. We expect a recovery in the second half of the year, but it will be... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: further rate cuts on the cards The Brazilian central bank’s larger-than-expected 50bp reduction in the Selic rate last night to 6.00%, and hints of more stimulus, have prompted us to pencil in an additional two 25bp rate cuts this... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jul.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 3.3% y/y in the middle of July surely seals the deal on a rate cut at the Copom meeting next week. Moreover, with underlying price pressures weak, policymakers are... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension vote paves way for larger rate cuts The large margin of victory for Brazil’s pension bill in its first vote in the lower house last night is likely to result in a rally in local markets later today, and makes an interest rate cut at the... 11th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Jun.) The sharp drop in Brazilian inflation to 3.4% in June, which took it below the central bank’s target, suggests that policymakers will soon start to ease monetary policy. Barring any major hiccups with... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform won’t revive economic growth Brazil’s pension reform bill would, if passed in its current form, reduce vulnerabilities stemming from the dire public finances. But we are sceptical that it would lead to the near-term turnaround in... 9th July 2019 · 4 mins read
