China Economics Weekly What to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Tuesday with a panoply of speeches and reports. Here’s what to focus on. 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Feb. 2024) The PMIs are consistent with activity holding steady in February, at least on paper. Although the survey readings remain below historical averages, this is likely distorted by sentiment effects --... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily EM Asian equities’ comeback may be just the start Equities in Emerging Asia have outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks, and we think that they’ll keep doing well during the rest of the year. 26th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Is China exporting deflation? Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of... 26th February 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly New developer financing scheme shows promise The record 25bp cut to the 5Y Loan Prime Rate, the benchmark for price mortgages, captured the headlines this week. But of greater importance to China's property sector is the new "real estate... 23rd February 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Focus Trump tariffs: round two would be more damaging Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if... 23rd February 2024 · 22 mins read
Global Markets Focus Market implications of Trump 2.0 We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term... 22nd February 2024 · 15 mins read
Event Commodities Drop-In: China trade data and the commodities demand outlook 1709798400 How strong was Chinese commodities demand at the start of 2024? What do official growth and spending targets signal about demand over the coming year?
Capital Daily How China’s rate cuts could play out in its markets We expect China’s bonds, currency and equities to rally over the rest of this year. 20th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook AI productivity boom tempered by protectionist threat The AI revolution should deliver substantial productivity gains in the coming decade, particularly in advanced economies. But with working age populations falling in key areas and China’s economy in... 20th February 2024 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
China Rapid Response Policy Rates (Feb.) Today’s 25bp cut to the 5-year LPR is clearly aimed at supporting the housing market. On its own it will not revive new home sales. But coupled with efforts to provide increased credit support to... 20th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Event China Drop-In: Why China’s NPC won’t fix what ails its economy 1709625600 The 2024 National People’s Congress (NPC) will take place against a backdrop of acute concern about the Chinese economic outlook.
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar inches higher even as US equities hit new milestone While the dollar has fallen back a touch over the past couple of days, it has held on to most of its post-payrolls gains. The DXY index is now up about 3% on the year, having regained roughly half its... 9th February 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan) There was the usual seasonal surge in net credit in China in January that took new bank lending to a record high. The underlying story is less positive, with loan demand little changed and broader... 9th February 2024 · 2 mins read