Capital Daily What more disappointing China data means for its markets The “China re-opening” narrative has been on life support for some time, and another round of weaker-than-expected economic data out of the Middle Kingdom adds to our sense that China’s economy and... 16th May 2023 · 7 mins read
China Rapid Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Growth on most indicators accelerated in y/y terms in April. But this was due to a weak base for comparison from a year ago when Shanghai and several other cities went into lockdown. In seasonally... 16th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Chinese economic growth at 2% – Revisiting our 2018 call 1685001600 Five years ago, we forecast that China’s trend economic growth would be as little as 2% by the end of this decade. At the time, it was a decidedly minority view.
China Economics Weekly Making sense of the reopening recovery After a string of underwhelming but inconclusive data releases, we should have a better sense of the strength of China’s post-zero-COVID rebound next week with the release of the April activity and... 12th May 2023 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) A widely-anticipated acceleration in credit growth didn’t materialise last month, suggesting that momentum may already be fading in China’s post-zero-COVID rebound. 11th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr.) Producer price deflation deepened further last month to a 35-month low, and consumer price inflation dropped to its smallest in more than two years. Although the impact of reopening pushed up services... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Dialling back our optimism about Chinese equities With China’s economic rebound losing momentum and investors’ attention shifting back to concerns about the country’s political and economic model we think the near-term prospects for Chinese equities... 10th May 2023 · 7 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports likely to remain soft China’s commodity imports were generally weak in April. We suspect that import volumes generally could soften a bit further as any reopening effect on commodity demand fades and export demand... 9th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Apr.) China’s export volumes partially reversed March’s jump last month. Shipments of most consumer goods declined due to weak global demand except for those of electric vehicles. Given the gloomy outlook... 9th May 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer spending is back on track The Labour Day holiday was a key test of China’s consumer recovery. It passed with flying colours – domestic travel and tourism returned to normal, while retail sales look to have returned to the pre... 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? The idea of a new BRICS currency to settle trade or hold in reserves instead of the dollar has been doing the rounds recently. This could be modelled on the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights. But getting... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Commodity prices to struggle in the next few months The key message from the latest China PMIs is that whilst China’s economy is likely to grow strongly this quarter, momentum is fading. This will be one factor weighing on commodity prices in the near... 4th May 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Apr.) The latest survey data add to wider evidence that while China’s recovery remains robust, it is losing some momentum. In particular, the manufacturing PMIs fell below 50, suggesting that the reopening... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade and Inflation (Apr.) A simple average of manufacturing PMIs in Emerging Asia rose slightly in April but this was almost entirely driven by a large jump in Thailand’s headline index to a record high. Weak global demand and... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Next in the spotlight: local government debt Investors sometimes talk about a ball of speculative money that rolls around China’s asset markets. There’s a ball of worry too, and it is rolling back into local government debt. The immediate... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read