China Economics Weekly Reviving private investment and hiring won’t be easy After making life more difficult for many private firms in recent years, China’s leadership is shifting course and has made high-level pledges to improve the business environment. But although parts... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: Is China in a balance sheet recession? 1690444800 Widespread angst around China’s growth outlook is fuelling a debate about whether the economy is in the kind of “balance sheet recession” that typified Japan’s experience in the 1990s.
Capital Daily China: no country for old (or young) equity bulls? With yet more disappointing news about China’s economic rebound, it is worth taking stock of the headwinds facing the country’s equity market. We think Chinese equities will hold up better than other... 17th July 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response GDP (Q2) & Activity (Jun.) GDP growth slowed more quickly than expected in Q2 due to a rapid fizzling out of the reopening boost. Continued weakness in the property sector, possible loosening in the labour market and few signs... 17th July 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Targeted rather than broad policy support Policymakers have taken further steps to support the economy this week. But these moves have been targeted at struggling sectors rather than the wider economy through broad policy stimulus. We think... 14th July 2023 · 8 mins read
China Rapid Response China Trade (Jun.) Chinese exports contracted year-on-year in June by the most since March 2020, with export volumes falling to a 6-month low. And with the global downturn in goods demand continuing to weigh on exports... 13th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equity market winners in the age of AI Given our view that a big stock market rally fuelled by enthusiasm about AI is on the way, we expect equities in some IT and industrials subsectors to outperform, which would favour the US market. 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) Although stronger than most had expected, bank loan growth still fell to its lowest in five months in June, while broad credit growth dropped to a record low. The continued deceleration adds to the... 11th July 2023 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Producer price deflation deepened further last month to its lowest in more than seven years, and consumer price inflation dropped to a 28-month low of 0%. Core inflation continued to fall as the... 10th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Russia & Saudi cuts; China’s control over critical metals Despite the flurry of macro data, it was a relatively quiet week for most commodity prices. Generally, a slight weakening in the US dollar, on net, contributed to small price rises. Oil prices were... 7th July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Intervention time: what next for the yen and the renminbi? China has stepped up its support of the renminbi and Japan appears to be edging closer to direct intervention to prop up the yen. While pressure from higher US interest rates may well continue in the... 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Export curbs will become blunt with use The PBOC has succeeded for the time being in stemming the slide in the renminbi. It wouldn’t take much for pressure to return, but we think the balance of probabilities points to a stronger currency... 7th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper prices to tread water until 2024 Expectations of fiscal stimulus in China have thrown previously floundering copper prices a lifeline. If policymakers go ahead, that may keep a floor under prices before a turnaround in construction... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of renminbi intervention China has stepped up its support of the renminbi, which has rebounded over the past couple of days. This may well prove a turning point for the currency. Three key points are worth emphasising. 4th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs suggest commodities demand is subdued China’s PMI aren’t consistent with some of the worst fears around China’s reopening recovery and weak commodities demand. But neither are they positive enough to warrant the boost to prices, such as... 3rd July 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Households remain cautious, loan demand softens The PBOC’s survey of depositors suggests that the household savings rate declined further in Q2 but may still be well above pre-pandemic levels amid a renewed deterioration in consumer sentiment. A... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read