China Rapid Response China Trade (Jul.) Chinese exports contracted in July by the most since the start of the pandemic. But the recent declines mostly reflect lower prices rather than volumes, which are still well above their pre-pandemic... 8th August 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water... 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Near-term fiscal boost, follow-up measures needed Local governments have been told to issue and spend their remaining special bond quotas by end-October, which will boost fiscal outlays in the near-term. But more needs to be done to prevent a... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
China Economics Update China’s property sector is increasingly state-led The property downturn has left state-owned developers the dominant players in a previously privately-led sector. The state is likely to continue playing a larger role as consolidation continues around... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update China’s weakness due to further slide in trend growth We estimate that China’s trend rate of growth has slowed from 5.0% in 2019 to 3.0% now, based on our China Activity Proxy. This is a steeper deceleration than in the years leading up to the emergence... 2nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs are grim reading for commodities demand China’s PMIs suggest that commodities demand has come completely off the boil. For the recent rally in industrial metals prices to be sustained, China’s policymakers will have to deliver on promises... 1st August 2023 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jul. 23) China's reopening recovery has fizzled out and the economy is now at risk of slipping into a recession. We think policymakers will provide enough stimulus to avoid this and deliver a modest... 31st July 2023 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Jul.) The PMI surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery continued to lose momentum in July. Downward pressure on manufacturing intensified, construction activity decelerated sharply, and services... 31st July 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Politburo keeps stimulus hopes alive The highlight of the week was Monday’s Politburo meeting, which struck a dovish tone and promised greater policy support. A lot will depend on the follow-through, and in this note we flag some areas... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery goes into reverse Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy contracted in June as the service sector spluttered. Policy support means the economy should return to growth before long. But the pace of... 27th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the jump in China’s stock market Chinese equities enjoyed one of their best days in years today, and we think they may continue to outperform equities elsewhere over the rest of this year. But the longer-term prospects for China’s... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) Global steel production growth picked up in June, albeit only to a pace consistent with stagnant growth. With the rise in output in China on shaky ground and weak demand beginning to weigh on supply... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China and Japanification: How great is the risk? China is not suffering a balance sheet recession: most private firms are not highly indebted and would borrow if they had more confidence in the economic outlook. But there are other parallels with... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Politburo Meeting (Jul. 23) The readout of the Politburo’s quarterly meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It struck a dovish tone but fell short of delivering any major new announcements. 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Chinese equities: near-term gain, long-term pain China’s stock market has underperformed over recent months and investors once again seem to be discounting a lot of bad news. We think this pessimism is slightly overdone and that Chinese equities... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Reviving private investment and hiring won’t be easy After making life more difficult for many private firms in recent years, China’s leadership is shifting course and has made high-level pledges to improve the business environment. But although parts... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read