China Economics Update China is holding on to its dollars Falls in the value of China’s recorded holdings of US Treasuries tell us little about whether China is divesting from the dollar. A broader look at the data suggests that it isn’t, despite... 4th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economic Outlook “Higher for longer” won’t survive economic weakness We think that the now popular assumption that interest rates will be held “higher for longer” will prove incorrect as economic growth disappoints and price pressures recede. While recessions have not... 3rd October 2023 · 46 mins read
Commodities Update China’s latest PMIs are positive for commodities The latest above-50 readings in China’s PMIs are consistent with our view that China’s demand for commodities will remain solid in the second half of this year, but not grow strongly. 2nd October 2023 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response PMIs (Sep.) The PMI surveys suggest another month of stable economic activity in September. A continued acceleration in construction activity appears to have offset a further softening in services activity... 2nd October 2023 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Emerging industries won’t replace property The leadership's recent promotion of "new-type industrialisation" has led to suggestions that emerging new manufacturing sectors like green technology could take the place of property as drivers of... 29th September 2023 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus to deliver partial recovery China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling for a brief period during the summer. A step up in policy support looks set to deliver a modest cyclical recovery but trend growth remains... 27th September 2023 · 17 mins read
China Economics Update AI, China and Global Economic Fragmentation The AI sector in China is developing on a distinct path from that in the West as a result of political choices made in Beijing and Washington. This split will in time extend around the world, becoming... 26th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Aug.) The slowdown in global steel production in August is consistent with our long-held view that slowing demand will weigh on production in the second half of this year. Weakening demand stems from... 25th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Asia Economic Outlook Economic weakness to prompt policy easing in 2024 GDP growth across most of Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year and we expect growth to remain weak in the near term as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on... 25th September 2023 · 34 mins read
China Economics Weekly Foreigners staying away, consumers perking up When officials launched the “Invest in China” campaign in March, they had hoped 2023 would be the year in which foreign investment came roaring back, supported by the removal of COVID restrictions... 22nd September 2023 · 6 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Economy has returned to growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that, after a period of stagnation, China’s economy has returned to growth recently, with output finally surpassing its previous high in August. Policy support... 20th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities may be ready to outperform the US We expect China’s equities to fare better than those in the US in the near term. 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly China EV investigation, ECB done with hikes The European Commission’s decision to launch an investigation into Chinese EV subsidies underlines policymakers’ resolve to slow China’s rapid ascent in the market. But any measures taken are unlikely... 15th September 2023 · 6 mins read