Latin America Economics Update Opening up Mexican oil sector could pump growth The emergence of a political consensus in favour of opening up the oil industry in Mexico has increased the likelihood that the winner of July’s presidential election will take steps to increase the... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Counting the cost of Argentina’s trade barriers Protectionist trade controls in Argentina are already taking a toll on growth in neighbouring countries, with Paraguay and Uruguay hardest hit. In the longer-term, however, it may be Argentina that... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic ‘model’ living on borrowed time Last week’s news that Argentina is to nationalise YPF has helped to deflect attention from further signs that the economy is slowing sharply. A growing dependence on temporary fixes to prop up an... 27th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Inflation has further to fall The decision by Brazil’s central bank earlier this month to cut interest rates once again has raised concerns in some quarters about the outlook for inflation over the rest of this year. As it happens... 25th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine FDI: is there life after YPF? History suggests that the nationalisation of YPF may do little to deter FDI in Argentina’s energy sector. Nevertheless, we suspect that it will have a more significant impact on investment flows into... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How is growth shaping up in Latin America? It was beginning to feel like somebody had turned the clock back twelve months. With the first quarter of 2012 bringing a renewed sense of calm to global markets and a rebound in activity across the... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Credit growth still uncomfortably strong The recent slowdown in Brazilian bank lending highlights the unsustainable nature of rapid credit growth in parts of Latin America. Credit risks are greatest in Argentina and Venezuela, while the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What are Argentina's lessons for the euro-zone? Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update YPF just another scapegoat for failures of Argentine model Rumours that Argentina’s largest energy company, YPF, is on the brink of being nationalised have seen the company’s share price plummet and sovereign risk premia spike over the past few days. Not only... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets pause for breath The rebound in financial markets across Latin America since the start of the year has lost some momentum in recent weeks. Having rallied by 10% or so in the first two months of this year, most of the... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Jump in oil prices is a net benefit for Latin America Latin America is one of the few regions to have benefitted from the $25pb jump in oil prices over the past six months or so: higher prices provide a prop to regional growth and, for now at least, the... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine Q4 slowdown is a sign of things to come Official GDP data continue to overstate the health of Argentina’s economy and we estimate that growth slowed to 4.5% y/y in Q4. The current economic model is reaching its limits, and with little... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: New BCRA Charter is a licence to print money The latest changes to Argentina’s Central Bank Charter will pave the way for further monetisation of a deteriorating fiscal balance. As such, any remaining hopes that the Fernández government is about... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil’s “currency war”? Brazil’s so-called “currency war” has lost a little of its momentum in recent days, as the real – like most EM currencies – has weakened. This provides an ideal opportunity to take stock of the recent... 23rd March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s growth model under the spotlight News that Brazil last year overtook the UK to become the world’s sixth largest economy is further evidence, if any was needed, of the continued rebalancing of global economic power towards the... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Bumps in the road The immediate outlook for Latin America has brightened in recent months as fears of a renewed crisis in the developed world have eased. But even so, while the region is likely to outperform most... 15th March 2012 · 1 min read
