Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso bucks EM sell-off Latin American assets and currencies have sold off over the past month as a weaker pace of emerging market growth and fears of an escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis have weighed on investor... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Limits to credit-driven growth come into focus Latin America’s recent lending boom continues to deflate, strengthening our belief that credit can’t be as big a driver of growth going forward as it has been in recent years. With household balance... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Outlook brightens, Mexico to stay ahead of Brazil Growth in Latin America has accelerated in recent months and we expect the upturn to continue in most countries over the coming quarters. Nonetheless, growth is unlikely to return to the rates seen in... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jan.) Yesterday’s US appeals court hearing has arguably increased the risk of a fresh Argentine debt default. But in the real economy, at least, there are signs that things are improving. An uptick in... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters still struggling Latin American exporters remain stuck in rut. We estimate that the region’s export revenues grew by a mere 1% in 2012. A key factor in this poor performance has been that the prices of commodities –... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real strengthens on policy U-turn The Brazilian real has rallied towards 1.95/US$ in recent weeks after government officials hinted that a stronger currency would be tolerated to help contain inflation. By contrast, in most other... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso falls through 5/US$ and set to keep going The Argentine peso fell to a record low of 5/US$ today, however most small businesses and consumers are forced to access dollars at an even weaker rate on the black market. Going forward, we expect... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: equity outperformance unlikely to be sustained The recent rally in Argentine equities stands in stark contrast to a falling foreign currency bond market this year. A weak bond market performance is largely explained by a US court case which has... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Dec.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator shows that Argentina’s economy continued to recover in the final quarter of 2012. Even so, we estimate that GDP growth was close to zero for the year... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bright start to the year as global tensions ease This is the first edition of our new monthly Latin America Markets Monitor. The purpose of this publication is to analyse the developments in local markets over the past month and give an update on... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Outlook brightens (a little) for Argentina in debt dispute Events have recently swung back in Argentina’s favour in its dispute with holdout bondholders. Despite this, there remains a significant risk of a default over the course of this year. What’s more... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth picking up, but 2013 set to be a testing year Growth in Latin America has accelerated in the final months of this year. We reckon that regional GDP is on course to expand by just over 3% y/y in Q4, up from less than 2.5% y/y in Q3. This should... 14th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt: what are the risks ahead? As the dust settles on the latest twist in Argentina’s sovereign debt debacle, attention has turned to 2013 and the possibility of a fresh default. This remains a significant risk. But while a default... 12th December 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack A better end to the year Latin America appears to be enjoying an end of year growth spurt. We estimate that regional GDP growth accelerated to around 3% y/y in Q3, from a three-year low of 2.5% y/y in Q2. What’s more, growth... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update US court ruling calls Argentina's bluff on holdout debt Yesterday’s ruling by a US judge implies that if Argentina continues to play hardball on its holdout debt it will find itself in technical default within a matter of weeks. This may not be the... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Growth to slow amid global headwinds The economies of Latin America will continue to outperform their peers in the developed world over the coming quarters, but growth is set to slow in 2013 and will be lacklustre by the standards of the... 21st November 2012 · 1 min read
