Latin America Economics Update Mining stocks take a hit Latin American equities have mostly sold off over the past month, compounding an already weak start to the year. Hardest hit have been the large mining firms based in the Andes, many of whom appear to... 29th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Mar.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator shows that while GDP growth accelerated in Q1, the underlying pace of economic activity remained lacklustre. Moreover, the very latest data suggest that the recent... 23rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update China's slowdown: who is most vulnerable? The past week has seen renewed concern that a slowdown in China will drag on growth in the rest of the emerging world, including Latin America. We think these concerns are justified. But while Latin... 18th April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina moves a step closer to default Argentina’s final offer to ‘holdout’ bondholders looks set to fall well short of the level required to reach an agreement, leaving the government closer than ever to a technical default. With the... 3rd April 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt offer may be too little, too late Time is running out for Argentina to find a workable solution in a US court case which threatens to trigger a messy sovereign default. While the country’s fate is still technically in its own hands... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Domestic demand offsets external weakness Growth in Latin America has continued to rebound in recent months. But while the economy is on course to expand by about 3% y/y in Q1, the pace of growth remains far below the 5-6% y/y rates that were... 27th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Feb.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator suggests that the modest rebound in growth witnessed in late 2012 has continued in the early months of 2013. Even so, we are sceptical about the chances of a sustained... 26th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican peso bucks EM sell-off Latin American assets and currencies have sold off over the past month as a weaker pace of emerging market growth and fears of an escalation of the euro-zone debt crisis have weighed on investor... 25th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Limits to credit-driven growth come into focus Latin America’s recent lending boom continues to deflate, strengthening our belief that credit can’t be as big a driver of growth going forward as it has been in recent years. With household balance... 20th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Outlook brightens, Mexico to stay ahead of Brazil Growth in Latin America has accelerated in recent months and we expect the upturn to continue in most countries over the coming quarters. Nonetheless, growth is unlikely to return to the rates seen in... 14th March 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jan.) Yesterday’s US appeals court hearing has arguably increased the risk of a fresh Argentine debt default. But in the real economy, at least, there are signs that things are improving. An uptick in... 28th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Exporters still struggling Latin American exporters remain stuck in rut. We estimate that the region’s export revenues grew by a mere 1% in 2012. A key factor in this poor performance has been that the prices of commodities –... 26th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real strengthens on policy U-turn The Brazilian real has rallied towards 1.95/US$ in recent weeks after government officials hinted that a stronger currency would be tolerated to help contain inflation. By contrast, in most other... 21st February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso falls through 5/US$ and set to keep going The Argentine peso fell to a record low of 5/US$ today, however most small businesses and consumers are forced to access dollars at an even weaker rate on the black market. Going forward, we expect... 13th February 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: equity outperformance unlikely to be sustained The recent rally in Argentine equities stands in stark contrast to a falling foreign currency bond market this year. A weak bond market performance is largely explained by a US court case which has... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Dec.) The Capital Economics Argentina Activity Indicator shows that Argentina’s economy continued to recover in the final quarter of 2012. Even so, we estimate that GDP growth was close to zero for the year... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
