Latin America Economics Update Fiscal populism setting Argentina up for a fall Argentina’s public finances have deteriorated by more than meets the eye under Cristina Fernández. Increased monetisation and the transfer of resources from public institutions have prevented the... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rates to stay lower than the market expects Latin American central banks have taken divergent paths in 2013. Whereas Brazil started to hike interest rates in April, both Colombia and Mexico have trimmed their benchmark rates this year... 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Jun.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator suggests that GDP growth picked up by more than we had initially expected in Q2. And with the fiscal purse strings set to be loosened further ahead of October’s mid... 30th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A new era of weaker growth Latin American growth fell to its slowest rate since 2009 in the first half of this year and, while some countries are likely to see a rebound over the coming quarters, we think that for most this... 29th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets steady following Q2 rout Latin American financial markets have steadied in July after a sharp sell-off over the previous couple of months. We suspect that markets will stay under pressure in the near term. However, the worst... 26th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s industrial recovery limited to auto sector This year’s revival in Argentine vehicle production stands out against the backdrop of an otherwise moribund manufacturing sector. But we doubt that this is an early indicator of better times ahead... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Investment plan another reason to expect Mexico rebound The poor performance of the Mexican economy so far this year has been one of the biggest disappointments in Latin America. In this Watch we explain why, in contrast to Brazil, the slowdown owes more... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update CEDIN won’t solve Argentina’s balance of payments issues Argentina’s new certificate of deposit (CEDIN) is yet another stopgap measure aimed at alleviating a growing shortage of dollars. Without deeper reforms to economic policy, Argentina’s slow-burning... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fed sends markets reeling Latin American bonds, equities and currencies have slumped over the past month after the US Fed signalled its intention to taper its asset purchases under QE3 later this year. But while financial... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Latin American currencies? The sharp falls in Latin American currencies over the past month mean that many are now below our end-year targets, which looked extremely bearish only a few months ago. But while we think the trend... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Slower growth to become the new norm Economic growth across Latin America was weaker than expected in Q1. We estimate that regional GDP increased by about 2.2% y/y, down from 2.8% y/y in Q4 of last year – the slowest pace since 2009... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Latin American equities underperform The recent weakness of Latin American stock markets has continued unabated in May, with returns well below those of developed and emerging market equity benchmarks. Going forward, we expect stocks to... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina Activity Indicator (Apr.) Our Argentina Activity Indicator shows some improvement in April and has prompted us to nudge up our 2013 GDP growth forecast to 1.5%. Even so, growth remains slow by the standards of recent years and... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Hidden vulnerabilities Latin American GDP growth slowed to its lowest rate since 2009 in the first quarter of this year and, while we expect to see a gradual recovery over the coming quarters, mounting vulnerabilities will... 22nd May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: time to come clean on inflation? Argentina remains on a collision course with the IMF over the accuracy of its consumer price data. The Fund has threatened to impose sanctions if corrective measures are not taken by 29th September... 16th May 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth softens The past month has brought further signs that the recovery in economic growth in Latin America that began in mid-2012 is now running into headwinds. Admittedly, calendar effects have probably... 30th April 2013 · 1 min read
