Latin America Economics Update Fernández victory sets Argentina up for a hard landing Argentina’s incumbent president, Cristina Fernández, eased to victory in yesterday’s Presidential Election as was widely expected. We do not foresee any material changes to the government’s policy... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More to follow Brazil’s lead Brazil’s decision to continue cutting interest rates despite the fact that inflation is running at a five-year high remains as controversial as ever. Nonetheless, on balance we think that the central... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina set to re-elect Cristina, but what next? Opinion polls suggest that Cristina Fernández will easily secure a second term in this weekend’s Presidential Election. But what might the next few years hold for Argentina’s economy? 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets take another pounding The Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.0% last night as the board weighed downside risks to growth against stubbornly high inflation. We believe that the BCU... 30th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate cuts back on the agenda for 2012 The rapid deterioration in the growth outlook for the developed world, and the deepening crisis in Europe in particular, should in time vindicate last month’s surprise (and controversial) decision by... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Heading into choppy waters The economies of Latin America are likely to slow by more than most expect over the next year. We do not anticipate a prolonged downturn, but the marked deterioration in the external environment means... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: threat of overheating still looms large Argentina’s Q2 GDP figures reinforce our belief that the economy is overheating and poised for a sharp correction in the coming years. Official statistics continue to overstate the economy’s growth... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s inflation inaccuracies underlie deeper economic ills Official statistics continue to drastically underreport inflation in Argentina, resulting in a number of serious economic distortions. Building pressures on the regime make a recession probable... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How sustainable is Argentina's economic model? Argentina’s recent economic performance masks a series of debilitating distortions which threaten to undermine the nation’s future growth prospects. With regime change seemingly unlikely, we believe... 6th September 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Market rout focuses attention on risks to growth Financial markets in Latin America suffered heavy losses during the recent global market turmoil, extending their poor performance so far this year. Equity markets fell by around 15% amid a widespread... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican rates on hold until 2013 The recent turmoil in the financial markets has re-shaped the debate on how far interest rates may need to rise in Latin America. We still expect one or two more hikes in Peru, Colombia and perhaps... 18th August 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Interest rates close to peaking Policymakers in most of Latin America’s inflation-targeting countries have begun to signal an end to the current cycle of monetary tightening. In the very near term, we still expect the combination of... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rates should peak this year The recent spike in food inflation has a little further to run and, in most economies, core inflation pressures are building. But even so we still expect headline inflation to start to fall in pretty... 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: hard landing on the horizon Growth in Argentina has shown few signs of slowing in 2011 and we remain concerned about overheating and a hard landing further ahead. Excessively loose policy continues to fuel booming domestic... 8th July 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Markets continue to struggle Financial markets across Latin America have had a fairly torrid time over the past month or so. Fears of a renewed global slowdown and a subsequent drop in commodity prices, along with worries about... 30th June 2011 · 1 min read