Latin America Economics Update Argentina: more to net trade boost than weaker peso GDP data released last night confirmed that Argentina entered a technical recession in Q3 and, while net trade provided a positive contribution to growth, we don’t think that this can be pinned solely... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s first budget, Argentina in recession Mexico’s 2019 budget that will be presented to Congress on Saturday looks set to (unrealistically) target a primary budget surplus. But, more importantly, if spending is projected to rise by much more... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs can afford to loosen fiscal policy? Most of the major EMs have ample fiscal firepower. This is particularly true in Asia and we think fiscal policy is likely to be loosened in much of the region next year, which should cushion slowdowns... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso’s vulnerabilities back in the spotlight A range of factors, including a fall in soybean prices, expectations of central bank intervention and political risk, appears to best explain the recent drop in the Argentine peso against the dollar... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine austerity drive a first step on long road ahead Having already hit the IMF’s primary deficit target for this year, Argentine policymakers have made impressive progress on fiscal tightening. But the squeeze so far accounts for only a third of the... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker currency helping Turkey more than Argentina A rise in inflation and higher interest rates mean Turkey and Argentina are likely to experience deep recessions over the next couple of quarters. However, whereas the fall in the lira should help to... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine political risk, Levy’s BNDES challenge Argentina’s Senate this week passed the government’s IMF-endorsed austerity budget for next year, but bond markets are starting to share our concerns over mounting political risks surrounding October... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s revised IMF deal The larger-than-expected increase in the size of Argentina’s revamped IMF credit line reduces debt rollover risks and is likely to lead to a rally in local markets when they open later today. The... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What to look for in Argentina’s new IMF deal With Argentina reportedly set to announce a new and improved IMF credit line later today, in this Update we outline what investors should look out for in the deal. 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s 2019 budget: devil is in the detail Argentina’s 2019 federal budget presented to Congress last night contains a large fiscal squeeze and, if implemented in full, would stabilise the public debt ratio. However, some key IMF requests have... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Is Macri a busted flush? The export tax announced by Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri this week, which formed the centrepiece of an emergency fiscal austerity package, will help to narrow the budget deficit. But the fact... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: how close is a sovereign default? The recent collapse in the Argentine peso has raised concerns about a sovereign default. As things stand, we think it’s most likely that the government will be able to service its upcoming debts. That... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt: what are the crunch points? The Argentine government’s announcement that it wants to draw on more of its IMF bailout package reflects the harsh reality of large upcoming FX debt repayments, especially in November. But the... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How does the latest EM sell-off stack up? Asset prices in Turkey and Argentina have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, while the moves in other countries’ markets look similar to previous EM sell-offs over the past decade. It’s still very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
