Latin America Economics Weekly Is Macri a busted flush? The export tax announced by Argentina’s President Mauricio Macri this week, which formed the centrepiece of an emergency fiscal austerity package, will help to narrow the budget deficit. But the fact... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The recent turmoil in local markets means that Argentina’s recession will be even deeper than we previously anticipated. We now expect a 4% drop in GDP over 2018 as a whole (vs. -0.5% previously), and... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: how close is a sovereign default? The recent collapse in the Argentine peso has raised concerns about a sovereign default. As things stand, we think it’s most likely that the government will be able to service its upcoming debts. That... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine debt: what are the crunch points? The Argentine government’s announcement that it wants to draw on more of its IMF bailout package reflects the harsh reality of large upcoming FX debt repayments, especially in November. But the... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How does the latest EM sell-off stack up? Asset prices in Turkey and Argentina have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, while the moves in other countries’ markets look similar to previous EM sell-offs over the past decade. It’s still very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s central bank moving in right direction Argentina’s central bank announced a tweak to its monetary policy framework last night which, in time, should help it to gain better control over monetary conditions. It also appears to have stopped... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Financial conditions tighten in key economies Argentina’s currency crisis has caused financial conditions there to tighten sharply in the past few months, and this is one reason why we expect the economy to fall into recession in the coming... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks take centre stage The Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates this week underscored its sensitivity to currency weakness and, while our base case is that this move will be a one-off, further falls in... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: IMF deal imposes ambitious fiscal targets Confirmation that Argentina has reached an agreement with the IMF over a financing package will help to restore investor confidence and provide a much-needed anchor for the country’s necessary... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Argentina the exception rather than the rule Argentina’s currency crisis has put the spotlight on the country’s growing economic fragilities, but vulnerabilities in the region’s other major economies have diminished in recent years. Current... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth stabilises before the sell-off Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth stabilised in Q1 and early signs point to growth having picked up at the start of Q2. The recent market stress is likely to push a handful of economies (notably... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina not (yet) facing a public debt crisis Despite the near-25% drop in the peso against the dollar so far this year, Argentina is not yet facing a sovereign debt crisis. The public debt ratio will rise this year, but not to an alarming level... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update How can Argentina get out of its crisis? The lesson from EMs that have been forced to turn to the IMF for financial support in the past is that Argentina will need a combination of front-loaded fiscal tightening, reforms at the central bank... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Does the Argentine peso have much further to fall? Following its near-20% drop so far this year, Argentina’s real effective exchange rate looks pretty close to its ‘fair’ value – we estimate that it probably needs to fall by a modest 5% or so from... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: lessons from 2001/02 There are some similarities between Argentina’s current crisis and 2001/02 crisis. But there are also critical differences, not least the fact that the peso is now free-floating and the authorities... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
