Latin America Chart Pack Regional inflation hits seven-year low Inflation has continued to fall across Latin America – our measure of regional inflation (excluding Argentina and Venezuela) dropped below 4% y/y for the first time since 2010 last month. This is due... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine peso has further to fall The Argentine peso has been the worst-performing EM currency over the past month, and we think it has further to fall. Our forecast is for it to weaken by another 10% against the dollar to 19/$ by end... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s new national inflation series The publication of a national consumer price index by Argentina’s statistics office is a further step towards overhauling its previously discredited inflation data. The short back series limits its... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Argentina: rate cuts coming, but easing to be gradual The sharp drop in Argentine inflation to an 18-month low in May is likely to prompt the central bank to shift into easing mode over the coming quarters. But with core inflation likely to be slow to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic recovery to continue The stronger-than-expected 1.1% q/q rise in Argentine GDP in Q1 was driven by a pick-up in domestic demand, which is likely to have been the key beneficiary of looser fiscal policy ahead of October’s... 22nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook On the road to recovery The outlook for Latin America is improving and we expect economic growth to accelerate over the next year. The latest political crisis to engulf Brazil has cast fresh doubts over the outlook there but... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: progress on reform slows ahead of legislative elections President Macri has made solid progress in tackling Argentina’s economic vulnerabilities over the past eighteen months but reform momentum more recently has slowed. With legislative elections... 9th May 2017 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Geopolitics trumps local events in frontier financial markets Headlines in the past month have been dominated by local political events in frontier markets. In Venezuela, violent mass protests have swept the country. Meanwhile, the victory of Serbia’s Prime... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil breathes sigh of relief as meat scandal subsides The scandal over Brazil’s meat sector, which at one point appeared to threaten the country’s economic recovery, seems to have faded just as quickly as it escalated. The crisis exploded following the... 28th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: provincial spending cap positive, but hurdles remain The proposed spending cap on Argentina’s provincial governments is a positive step and could in theory narrow the overall public sector budget deficit by almost 1% of GDP by 2019. However, it’s not... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Can Macri fix Argentina’s fiscal mess? With legislative elections due in October, progress in narrowing Argentina’s bulging budget deficit will be slow this year and we expect only a modest fiscal squeeze in 2018-19. More fundamentally... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Strike at major copper mine leaves Chile flirting with recession There is a good chance that a strike at Chile’s largest copper mine will tip the economy into a technical recession in Q1. While growth should return in Q2, the weakness of the non-mining sector means... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Weak survey data suggest soft start to 2017 The recent deterioration in survey data across most of Latin America suggests that the region’s economic recovery may have softened at the start of 2017. Following President Trump’s inauguration and a... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rebound in Argentine peso unlikely to be sustained The recent strength of the Argentine peso, which has been the best-performing currency in Latin America so far this month, has led some to suggest that the worst is over for the currency. However, the... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Business investment set to recover Having contracted sharply last year, fixed investment across Latin America looks set to return to growth in 2017. With consumer spending likely to remain under pressure, a pick-up in investment will... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: new economic team, same challenges The motives behind the Argentine government’s decision to oust finance minister Alfonso Prat-Gay in December are unclear, but at this stage two key points are worth emphasising. First, despite... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
