Latin America Economics Update IMF or not – Argentina to fall into recession this year The news that Argentina has started talks with the IMF over a full-blown bailout has masked the fact that – deal or no deal – the economy is likely to fall into recession this year. We now expect GDP... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina and the IMF: what happens next? The announcement yesterday that Argentina will seek an IMF deal has brought some relief to the peso, but it’s far from guaranteed that an agreement will be reached. More generally, talk of an IMF deal... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA rate hike may finally provide a floor for the peso Today’s 675bp interest rate hike by the Argentine central bank, the third emergency hike in a week, finally seems to have brought some support to the currency. Evidence from other EM central banks... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further EM currency weakness likely to be limited Emerging market (EM) currencies have remained under pressure this week, and we expect most to soften further against the dollar. But, with the exceptions of the Turkish lira and Argentine peso, the... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Emergency rate hike fails to shore up Argentine peso The Argentine central bank’s interest rate hike at an unscheduled meeting on Friday has provided little relief for the peso, which is down by another 2.5% against the dollar today. Against a backdrop... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: BCRA turns hawkish, policy to stay tight Argentina’s central bank left its policy interest rate unchanged at 27.25% last night, but the statement accompanying the decision struck a notably more hawkish tone and suggested that the easing... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: fiscal squeeze & drought to weigh on growth Recently-released Q4 GDP data confirms that economic growth in Argentina softened at the end of last year, and we expect the economy to slow further over the course of 2018 as tighter fiscal policy... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: interest rates to be cut by less than most expect The decision by Argentina’s central bank to pause its easing cycle last night was accompanied by another cautious statement, reinforcing our view that interest rates will be cut by less than most... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA shift puts Argentine peso under pressure It’s been a good start to 2018 for Latin America’s financial markets, with equities outperforming those in developed markets, currencies posting strong gains against the dollar, and bond spreads... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine central bank has more work to do The decision by Argentina’s central bank to follow up last month’s surprise interest rate hike with another increase last night reinforces the view that policymakers are getting tough on inflation. We... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update One chart to watch for Argentine investors The performance of President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in last weekend’s legislative elections has given a boost to reform hopes, but we can’t escape the feeling that investors are glossing over the... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina raises rates, leaves door open to further hikes The decision by Argentina’s central bank to hike its policy interest rate, when most analysts had been expecting the next move to be a cut, is an encouraging sign that policymakers are serious about... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Over to you, President Macri The strong showing by President Macri’s Cambiemos coalition in yesterday’s legislative elections is likely to give a boost to local financial markets when they open later today. However, attention... 23rd October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Recovery in Latin America steps up a gear The past month has brought further evidence that the recovery in Latin America is picking up pace. Our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth is now running at a three-year high of 3% y/y. The... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s economic recovery looking unbalanced Recently-released GDP data confirmed that Argentina’s economic recovery continued in Q2, with economy growing at its fastest pace in two years. However, the drivers of growth are looking unbalanced. 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First thoughts on Argentina’s draft 2018 budget The sizeable fiscal squeeze unveiled in Argentina’s draft 2018 budget is a step in the right direction, but it would only reverse this year’s loosening of fiscal policy ahead of October’s legislative... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
