Latin America Economics Update Dim outlook for Argentina’s crushed economy With new virus cases still high, capital controls more pervasive, and fiscal policy unlikely to stay loose, we are nudging down our Argentina GDP forecasts. We now expect an 11% drop this year and... 23rd September 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s debt deal The completion of a deal to restructure almost all $66.2bn of Argentina’s international sovereign bonds will give the government some much-needed breathing space over the coming years, as will an... 1st September 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: restructuring deal may not be enough The recent progress in talks between Argentina’s government and bondholders suggests that a debt restructuring deal is increasingly likely. However, we are sceptical of the IMF’s view that the... 4th June 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s D-day & what it means for restructuring Barring an eleventh hour deal out of the blue, Argentina’s ninth sovereign default will be confirmed on Friday and, while this event is unlikely to surprise many in the markets, it will up the ante on... 21st May 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: comparisons with 2001/02 One major difference between Argentina’s current crisis and the historic 2001/02 episode is that the hit to private sector balance sheets should be smaller. So even though the coronavirus will cause a... 11th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five Q&As on Argentina’s restructuring proposal The Argentine government’s aggressive proposal to restructure its international bonds entails over $40bn in debt relief, which would go some way to restoring public debt sustainability. However, there... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Coronavirus deepens Argentina’s debt crisis The effects of the coronavirus will push Argentina’s economy into an even deeper recession and make the government more tempted to unilaterally halt payments on its international bonds. While we think... 7th April 2020 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: what to make of the IMF’s latest review The IMF’s (belated) announcement that Argentina’s public debt is “unsustainable” removes any doubt that private bondholders will need to stomach large haircuts in a restructuring. But investors are... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: What to watch for as Fernández takes office Alberto Fernández’s government, which takes office today, will soon begin to implement its economic agenda and outline its proposals to resolve the debt crisis. This Update outlines four key things to... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a closer look at debt restructuring President-elect Alberto Fernández’s plan to resolve Argentina’s debt crisis by growing the economy is not a realistic option. We think that a large debt write-down within a few years is inevitable... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: First thoughts following Fernández win There is still a lot of uncertainty following Alberto Fernández’s widely-expected victory in Argentina’s presidential election, but one point we would stress is that a large debt write-down will... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Fernández win mean for Argentina? Left-wing Peronist Alberto Fernández is widely expected to win Sunday’s presidential election, and we think that his tenure would be marked by more accommodative policy, persistently high inflation... 23rd October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Capital controls would do long-term damage The capital controls introduced by Argentine President Mauricio Macri over the weekend may, in the short term, help to stem capital flight and slow the pace of FX reserve depletion. But their... 2nd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Questions & answers on Argentina’s debt reprofiling The Argentine finance ministry’s decision to extend the maturities of some of its short-term local-law debt, and enter talks with external bondholders, is tantamount to default. The government and... 29th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Argentina’s FX reserves The Argentine central bank’s large intervention in the FX market in recent days hasn’t been enough to stop the peso from weakening further against the dollar, and we think that the gross FX reserve... 28th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A primer on Argentine government debt Investors appear to be coming round to our view that an Argentine sovereign debt default is now more likely than not. This Update provides clients with a primer on the composition of federal... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
