Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal austerity bites in Hungary and the Czech Republic Today’s Q2 GDP data paint a picture of weakening growth, with Hungary joining the Czech Republic in recession. For now, the drop in output in both countries seems to have been driven as much by... 14th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Can the bond rally last? Emerging European bonds have rallied over the past couple of months. In the case of Hungary and Turkey we are doubtful that it can be sustained, but in the Czech Republic and Poland, it may have... 9th August 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates to be cut below 4% With the Polish economy slowing and inflation set to fall, we have revised our interest rate forecast and have now pencilled in 100bps of rate cuts (to 3.75%). This would suggest that the recent rally... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates to be cut below 4% With the Polish economy slowing and inflation set to fall, we have revised our interest rate forecast and have now pencilled in 100bps of rate cuts (to 3.75%). This would suggest that the recent rally... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A disappointing Q2 Deepening problems in the euro-zone continue to take their toll on Emerging Europe. Most of the region’s economies appear to have weakened in Q2. Even the region’s strongest performers, Russia and... 27th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish GDP growth probably slowed to 3% in Q2 The raft of recently released data from Poland suggests that GDP growth may have slowed to around 3.0% y/y in Q2, down from 3.5% y/y in Q1. And we suspect that growth in the second half of the year... 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Drop in Polish savings rate points to consumer slowdown The strength of Polish consumer spending over the past couple of years has only been made possible by a run-down in the household savings rate. But with the savings rate now at a record low and real... 24th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Don’t get carried away by talk of rate cuts At first glance, it looks like the tide is turning towards looser monetary policy in Emerging Europe. But while there may be one or two rate cuts over the coming month, we wouldn’t get carried away... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Poland a “core” property market? One of the key messages from JLL’s 2012 Global Real Estate Transparency Index was that CEE markets – especially Poland – have become more transparent relative to Western Europe. But we think that... 4th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturers in Central Europe feeling the squeeze June’s PMI data provide further evidence that manufacturers in the highly open economies of Central Europe are being hit hard by the crisis in the euro-zone, while those in Russia and Turkey are... 2nd July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would euro break-up mean for Emerging Europe? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone could knock some 2-3% off the level of Emerging Europe’s GDP by the end of 2013. But a bigger, more disorderly, break-up would... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Weaker Polish data could bring rate cuts back onto agenda Signs that the Polish economy is slowing should quell calls for rate hikes over the coming months. But growing troubles in the euro-zone mean that interest rate cuts are likely to come back on to the... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook worsens This month’s data brought further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is casting a long cloud over Emerging Europe. Business surveys have deteriorated further, suggesting that growth... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are shopping centre development pipelines in CEE too large? A low stock of shopping centre floorspace and relatively fast trend rates of consumer spending growth might suggest that the large shopping centre development pipelines in CEE could be absorbed... 21st June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The PMI puzzle Manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe have weakened significantly over the past couple of months as the economic outlook has darkened. The one crumb of comfort, however, is that they have not fallen as... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation falling in Eastern Europe Headline inflation fell pretty much everywhere in Emerging Europe in May on the back of easing food and energy inflation. Moreover, with the possible exception of Turkey, underlying price pressures... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
