Emerging Europe Economics Update Is this Poland’s “ECB moment”? The post-MPC press conference did not provide much clarity on whether this morning’s surprise hike in Polish interest rates was a one-off event or the start of a new tightening cycle. On balance, we... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Balance tips in favour of Polish rates staying on hold It remains a close call, but we think that the weaker run of data over the past couple of weeks has tipped the balance in favour of Polish interest rates being kept on hold at next week’s MPC meeting... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing hit by fresh slump in the euro-zone April’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that industrial output in most of Emerging Europe contracted last month – mirroring the recent deterioration in the survey data from Germany. More worryingly, the... 2nd May 2012 · 1 min read
Growth to disappoint as the euro-zone crisis drags on The euro-zone economy is heading back into recession. And if we are right that the euro-zone is not sustainable in its current form, the downturn will extend into 2013 and eventually encompass all... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets hit by fresh euro concerns Financial markets across Emerging Europe have been hit by fresh concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis in recent weeks. So far at least, the sell-off in the region’s markets has not been as dramatic... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone crisis still the big risk for region’s banks Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a mixed picture: in some countries (notably Hungary and the Baltic States) credit continues to shrink, in others (Turkey) a boom in lending over the past year or so... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Core inflation weakens in Eastern Europe Headline inflation remains above-target in most of Emerging Europe. But inflation fell in several countries last month while core price pressures are subdued everywhere apart from Turkey. 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Evaluating Hungary’s Early FX Repayment Scheme The introduction of Hungary’s early FX mortgage repayment scheme last September was one in a chain of events that severely dented market confidence in local policymaking and sent the economy to the... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish policymakers turn hawkish Polish policymakers left interest rates unchanged this afternoon, but Governor Belka’s subsequent remarks that the MPC were “seriously” considering raising rates has triggered a sell-off in the bond... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Region stabilising, but Q1 growth still lacklustre The manufacturing PMIs for March add to recent data suggesting that, while conditions in Emerging Europe are slowly improving, growth in Q1 of this year was still pretty lacklustre. The sharp jump in... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Market rally loses its shine The rally in financial markets since the start of the year has lost some steam in recent weeks. Most stock markets have fallen by around 2-3% since the start of the month and most currencies lost a... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are Polish retail occupier market conditions as healthy as they seem? Yesterday’s retail sales data from Poland suggest that occupier demand for retail floorspace in Warsaw is still strong relative to most of Europe. But the big picture is that consumer spending growth... 27th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish retail sales data overstate consumer demand Poland is one of the few countries in Europe where consumer spending has made a significant positive contribution to growth in recent years. However, we think that actual retail sales may be growing... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Which European office markets are most at risk of oversupply? Within Europe, office markets in the euro-zone’s peripheral region appear to be most at risk of oversupply over the next two years. But less obviously, office markets in Amsterdam and Budapest also... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update It’s the levels, stupid! The wide dispersion of growth rates across Emerging Europe masks big differences in the fundamental health of the region’s economies. In this Watch we explain why looking at levels of GDP is a much... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of the latest inflation data February’s inflation data were stronger than expected across Emerging Europe, fuelling concerns that the recent jump in oil prices is feeding into higher headline inflation. But we think this reading... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
