Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets rebound, but growth slowing Financial markets in Emerging Europe have rebounded following this summer’s turmoil. Equity markets (Turkey aside) have rallied by around 8% or more this month, while the region’s currencies have... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe markets rally despite slide towards recession The rally in financial markets in Central Europe over the past few weeks is all the more notable since it has taken place against a backdrop of worsening economic data. We expect growth in Poland and... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Little room for manoeuvre Although financial markets have recovered a little this month, the activity data from the region has continued to soften. Yet in pretty much every country, policymakers have less scope to stimulate... 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Sovereign Debt: are the emerging markets immune? Emerging markets are not immune from the deepening debt crisis in the developed world, but most are well-placed to deal with the fallout. China faces a difficult structural transition of its own but... 21st October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What will weaker currencies mean for inflation? Fears that the recent sell-off in Emerging Europe’s currencies might lead to a pick-up in inflation and put pressure on policymakers to raise interest rates are overstated. Nevertheless, weaker... 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish elections reassuring but slowdown ahead Victory for the governing Civic Platform Party in yesterday’s parliamentary elections in Poland will be welcomed as a sign of business as usual by the markets. But with external headwinds building and... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish economy now more vulnerable to a euro-zone slump With elections due on Sunday, the campaign of the governing Civic Platform party has understandably focussed on its economic credentials. After all, Poland was the only country in the EU to avoid... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets battered as euro-crisis deepens The past couple of days have seen a rebound in the region’s financial markets, but this has reversed only a fraction of the losses seen over the past month. Most equity markets, for example, are still... 29th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Slowing GDP growth unlikely to derail Polish investment market revival Our sub-consensus view that Polish GDP growth will slow to about 2.5%y/y in 2012 might suggest that the recent surge in commercial property investment activity could lose momentum. However, even if... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Focus shifts to boosting growth & safeguarding stability The latest turmoil in markets and the rapidly deteriorating outlook for global and regional growth mean that fears about rising inflation, which dominated the policy debate over the first half of this... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy gains momentum September’s activity data suggest that Russia is heading for a strong economic performance in the second half of 2011. What’s more, with both the consumer sector and industry picking up, growth looks... 20th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Here comes the slowdown The deepening crisis in the euro-zone reinforces our view that growth in Emerging Europe will slow by more than most expect over the next year. We expect the region’s economy as a whole to expand by... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Polish interest rates likely to be down The Polish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates on hold comes as little surprise given the recent signs of a domestic slowdown and lower demand from abroad. With inflation set to ease... 8th September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Swiss franc peg vs. euro provides only qualified relief The Swiss National Bank’s decision to effectively peg the Swiss franc to the euro will provide some qualified relief to Croatia, Hungary and Poland, which have significant amounts of Swiss franc debt... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Minimal threat of office supply shortages in CEE The rapidly slowing trend in CEE office completion volumes seen over the past couple of years looks set to be extended next year. But this does not imply that the region will face a shortage of office... 2nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland GDP growth remains robust, but for how long? Polish growth in Q2 remained relatively robust but we expect it to slow significantly in 2012 and 2013 to a below-consensus 3% y/y as external headwinds build. Having front-loaded monetary tightening... 31st August 2011 · 1 min read
