Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation divergence, Turkey’s BoP puzzle The latest batch of inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provides support to our view that tightening cycles in Czechia and Poland are at an end, but that Hungary’s central bank will... 16th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy crisis support won’t avert recessions across CEE Fiscal support to protect households and businesses from sky-high energy prices generally amounts to around 2-3% of GDP across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This will cushion, rather than fully... 14th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE economies hardest hit by Europe’s energy crisis In this Update, we analyse the impact of surging energy prices in Europe and show that the Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies are the most vulnerable. The share of household disposable... 12th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NS1 halted, Russian energy price cap, NBP ends hikes? The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline by Russia presents clear downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the G7 agreement to cap... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have the prospects for Warsaw industrial changed? The outlook for industrial demand in Poland has improved dramatically because of the pandemic and the rapid growth of ecommerce. This is set to keep prime industrial rental growth in Warsaw higher... 1st September 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s gas crisis deepens, CBRT financial repression? The latest surge in European wholesale gas and electricity prices has pushed governments to step up policy support to households and shore up energy supplies ahead of winter. Many economies are... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) July’s industrial production, retail sales and construction figures for Poland showed a stabilisation in activity after the surprise 2.3% q/q fall in GDP in Q2. But we expect the economy to stagnate... 22nd August 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CBRT plays with fire, Poland’s GDP shocker The surprise interest rate cut by Turkey's central bank this week, despite inflation reaching close to 80% y/y in July, threatens to sow the seeds of the next currency crisis. The banking sector... 19th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central and Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2022) GDP in Hungary and Romania continued to expand strongly in Q2 by 1-2% q/q, but the Czech and Slovakian economies barely grew at all and there was a shocking 2.3% q/q contraction in Poland. Looking... 17th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EU & the rule of law dispute: why do EU funds matter? EU funds will provide a key boost to economies in Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years as the region navigates a challenging macro environment and slowing global growth. Disputes with the... 10th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Manufacturing PMIs for July fell to levels consistent with contractions in industrial production in Q3, with the exception of in Russia, where the downturn in manufacturing seems to have stabilised... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia cuts gas supplies, signs of slowdown mount The news that Russia's Gazprom has cut gas exports to Europe further this week has increased the likelihood of recessions in many countries at a time that economic activity more broadly is already... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe showed declines across the region and across sectors in July, supporting our view that economies in the region are in the midst of... 28th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine default, Russia return to fiscal normality? Policymakers in Ukraine devalued the hryvnia this week and asked creditors to suspend debt repayments, which will free up funds for the government, but will add to inflation and increase balance sheet... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jun.) The weak set of Polish industrial production and retail sales figures for June provide the strongest evidence yet that the economy is in the midst of a sharp slowdown. It is very likely that GDP... 21st July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Hungary falling into a crisis? Hungary’s economy is now under substantial pressure. The forint has slumped and interest rates have been hiked aggressively. The only way through this is to accept the pain of a weak currency and... 8th July 2022 · 5 mins read
