Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The latest EC Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe point to a regional decline in GDP in the order of 0.5% q/q in Q4, but it was encouraging that sentiment increased for the... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) 4th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Nov.) November’s activity data for Poland were much better than expected and provide further evidence of the economy’s relative resilience to the drags from high inflation and interest rates. Even so, we... 21st December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE central banks still a long way from turning to cuts Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe have left interest rates on hold over the past month or so but their communications have continued to strike a relatively hawkish tone. Hungary’s... 19th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation peaking, but long road back to target Headline inflation in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will peak in most countries in the next few months, at around 20% y/y, and should fall to single-digits across the region by end-2023. But we... 7th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Surveys improve, Turkey’s FX reserves rebound The batch of survey data for November released this week improved across the region, but the data are still very weak and suggest that recessions lie in store in most countries. Elsewhere, the rebound... 2nd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag, but suggest that weakening demand and the fading boost from easing supply shortages has begun to take a heavier toll on industrial sectors in... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Resilience in CEE industry unlikely to last Industry across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has held up better than might have been expected this year given the extent of the energy price shock. While output in energy-intensive industry has... 29th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators increased in most Central and Eastern European economies in November, but sentiment remains at levels that have been consistent with recessions in most countries... 29th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of resilience, but recession still likely Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in... 24th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) October’s activity data for Poland suggest that the economy lost some steam at the start of Q4 and we think it was probably at the start of recession. We expect that evidence of a deeper downturn... 23rd November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Missile hits Poland, Hungary close to EU funds deal? The missile that landed in Poland on Tuesday and the subsequent reaction in financial markets serve as clear reminders of the close proximity of Central and Eastern European countries to the war in... 18th November 2022 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Higher interest rates exposing private sector debt risks Higher interest rates and larger private sector debt burdens mean that debt interest service ratios could rise to levels last seen in the 1990s in many EMs next year. This is unlikely to be a major... 17th November 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3 2022) Q3 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe were generally a bit better than we had expected, but pockets of weakness were beginning to emerge as the Czech and Hungarian economies both recorded q/q... 15th November 2022 · 3 mins read
