Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw office rental downturn ending, but recovery still some way off It now looks likely that Warsaw office rents fell by between 3% and 5% last year, in line with our forecasts. We think that office rents should now stabilise, as occupier demand turns increasingly... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2014 hold in store for Emerging Europe? After a torrid run over the past five years, things are looking on the up for Emerging Europe. Of course, the region will remain vulnerable to events in the euro-zone. However, so long as the single... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update December’s PMIs highlight fragile recovery Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month. Russia aside, the PMI readings are still high by the standard of the past couple of years. Even so, today’s data serve as a reminder that the... 2nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A rollercoaster month for Ukraine’s financial markets Escalating political protests caused Ukrainian bond yields and CDS premia to spike at the start of the month. However, following the announcement that Ukraine will receive financial assistance from... 20th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine steps back from the brink, but problems unresolved The outbreak of protests in Ukraine has dominated the headlines over the past month. With FX reserves already at perilously low levels, it had looked like the country could be tipped into a full-blown... 18th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the deflation threat in Central Europe? The weakness of the latest inflation data in Central Europe has sparked fears that, like the euro-zone, the region could be at risk of falling into a deflationary spiral. In this Watch, we argue that... 16th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Central Europe to lead the way, Russia & Turkey to disappoint The recovery in Emerging Europe has moved onto a firmer footing in recent months and we expect growth to accelerate over the coming quarters. However, the recovery is likely to be patchy and uneven... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian rate cuts now look unlikely The latest rise in Russian inflation, coupled with mounting concerns over the rapid expansion of consumer credit, mean that even the modest cuts in interest rates that we had pencilled in for early... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What are the risks of Russia’s consumer debt build-up? Recent comments from Elvira Nabiullina, the Governor of Russia’s central bank, have raised questions about the sustainability of Russia’s boom in consumer lending. While it may be too early to worry... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update November’s PMIs suggest recovery is strengthening The latest PMIs for Emerging Europe show that the region's manufacturing sector strengthened further in November. The important exception is Russia, whose PMI fell back last month, adding to the... 2nd December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth gradually picking up A raft of GDP data released over the past month confirmed that growth in Emerging Europe accelerated in Q3, albeit gradually. Overall, we calculate that regional GDP expanded by 1.8% y/y, up from 1.6%... 28th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian and Turkish markets continue to underperform It’s been a bumpy few weeks for equities and currencies in the region. Those in the two largest economies, Turkey and Russia, have underperformed. Meanwhile, the Czech koruna has posted the largest... 22nd November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy makes a weak start to Q4 Following last week’s disappointing Q3 GDP growth figures, today’s release of activity data for October suggests that the Russian economy made a weak start to Q4 too. Indeed, the only crumb of comfort... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Eastern Europe: towards a Goldilocks era? We have been among the most pessimistic forecasters on Emerging Europe over the past five years and the as yet unresolved debt problems in the euro-zone continue to cast a long shadow over the outlook... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: weak Q3 GDP caused by drop in investment The weaker-than-expected 1.2% y/y increase in Russian GDP in Q3 is likely to reinforce concerns that the slump in Emerging Europe’s largest economy over the past year will be longer-lasting than many... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bank of Russia’s shift to a free float could yet pay off Last week’s decision by Russia’s Ministry of Economy to downgrade its forecasts for long-run growth has revived the debate about what policymakers need to do in order for Russia to regain its economic... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
