Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's political crisis takes a heavy toll on the markets Ukraine’s bond market has been pummelled following the escalation of the political crisis in recent days. And the hryvnia has continued to weaken. Elsewhere, Russian and Hungarian assets have... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still stagnating Russia’s economy slowed further at the start of this year, with output now doing little more than stagnating in year-on-year terms. Nonetheless, the sharp drop in the ruble over the past few weeks has... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Uneven recovery in lending conditions Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that lending conditions are diverging across the region. Credit growth is gathering pace in countries with healthier banking sectors, such as the Czech Republic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia keeps one eye on the ruble The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left interest rates on hold today but signalled that it was ready to tighten policy if there were signs that the recent fall in the ruble was fuelling inflation... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficits narrow, Turkey an outlier Turkey’s current account deficit widened sharply at the end of last year, but the recent tightening of monetary policy means it could now start to narrow substantially. Elsewhere in the region... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why Russia needs to reform The need for economic reform in Russia is now widely accepted. However, a key point that is often overlooked is that a comprehensive programme of reform that takes in a wide range of different areas... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data likely to point to strengthening recovery The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe due later this month is likely to show that large parts of the region are on the mend, with Poland now the region’s star performer. We will... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMI data highlight uneven recovery January’s manufacturing PMI data provide further evidence that the economies of Central Europe are enjoying a decent recovery, but that manufacturing in Emerging Europe’s two largest economies, Russia... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia struggles as the rest of Emerging Europe recovers Today’s release of 2013 Russian GDP data suggests that while growth in the rest of Emerging Europe started to recover towards the end of last year, growth in Russia remained extremely sluggish. The... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Market turmoil highlights region’s differences The fallout from the turbulence in EM financial markets has split Emerging Europe into two groups. One group contains Turkey, Russia and Hungary, whose currencies have been among the hardest hit in... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will Russia become the next EM to come under fire? The sharp sell-off in the ruble over the past week has led some to question whether Russia could be the next EM in line to hike interest rates. For now, we suspect that the Central Bank will stick to... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey and Russia hit hard by the EM sell-off The Turkish lira has been the worst performing EM currency after the Argentine peso so far this year. This has forced the central bank to announce an emergency MPC meeting later today, at which it... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still struggling at the end of 2013 The raft of Russian activity data for December suggests that GDP growth may have picked up a little to around 1.5% y/y in Q4, from 1.2% y/y in Q3. For the year as a whole, this would imply average... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks loosen policy in spite of Fed tapering Despite concerns that the US Fed’s tapering of its asset purchases may force EM policymakers to hike interest rates, more EM central banks have loosened monetary policy over the past six months than... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where next for Russian property yields? The strength of the Russian investment market may suggest that our forecast for unchanged office and retail yields this year and next is too cautious. But the subdued economic outlook, the falls in... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's deteriorating external position a sign that all is not well Russia’s current account surplus declined over the course of 2013 and, for the first time since the 2008/09 crisis, became insufficient to cover capital outflows. Of course, with over $500bn in FX... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
